Doom

[TimberWolf]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.

[suityou01]

That's ok for jo pubic as long as wages are also inflating, otherwise fewer and fewer will be able to get new mortgages and homes won't sell, much like we are already seeing.

Seems we have biflation or whatever it's called, where certain items are inflating noticably (food, fuel) while others are slowly deflating (houses, imported electronics).

All very confusing to people like me with little nouse of economics and current influences on the UK.

What is the likely scenario for the UK for the next 5 years, anyone have a genuine inkling based on more than a guess or wishful thinking?

I predict a riot.

[TimberWolf]

Hmm, gold is threatening to break through £33,000/kg today.

[PAH]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up.

Not so good if they've not been overpaying the mortgage, instead using the surplus cash to buy fancy new cars and expensive holidays, or 'extravagent' food such as toms on the vine.

Many also have mortgage deals that have or are due to end and find they can't get the same deal elsewhere as they have less equity in their home, due to MEWing or house price reduction.

Then they get to a scenario where they want to move and find themselves in negative equity and without a big deposit for their new mortgage.

Reality is that a person on an average wage can't afford a property of average value.

Only manipulation of the market (artificially low interest rates, 100%+ mortgages, interest only mortgages, government paying mortgage interest while they're unemployed) is allowing the game to continue. It must rebalance sometime. There is no end to boom and bust, no matter what Gordo says.

[suityou01]

Asia markets slump

Shares in Asian markets have fallen on Wednesday, tracking US declines, after figures showed that the US economy is struggling to recover.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.2% in early trade. Benchmark indices in South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia were also down more than 2%.

Grab a tin tray folks and lean into the bends.

[PAH]

Hmm, gold is threatening to break through £33,000/kg today.

What event is likely within the next year to make it change course or crash?

[TimberWolf]

What event is likely within the next year to make it change course or crash?

Governments selling off gold?

Re, my question, it's £33,000/kg now. That didn't take long.

[MarillionFan]

It's been the best recession ever for those who had tracker mortgages just before this blew up. Their houses must be almost paid for by now, thanks to savers and renters. They must be revelling at the thought of another bailout. It hasn't been bad for bankers either.

I removed all of the cash from my offset and placed it in bonds, ISAs, cash accounts, equities. Receiving an average of 4% after tax but paying the bank 0.98% on 300k, and Ive been trading in / out equities with the rest with mixed success. Pulled out the majority of shares about 10 days ago assuming it would slide. Waiting for
FTSE to go <5500 before considering in.

[PAH]

Governments selling off gold?

That's the only one I can think of. Maybe the yanks will be forced to sell some of their reserve to raise funds instead of cutting trillions, once people start rioting like in Greece.

There must be other possible events. What generally causes the price of gold to drop other than market supply increase?

[PAH]

Waiting for FTSE to go <5500 before considering in.

I've noticed it hovering around 5800-6000 for weeks. Only in the last few days has it started to fall significantly below that, so you may have timed it right!

Might look into a FTSE tracker and drip-feed some of my cash into it, once it's clear the fall isn't a precursor to a crash.