DimPrawn's trading thread

[BlasterBates]

Tightly packed tourists in China in huge numbers crammed in tourist spots at the beginning of April

3 new cases in China at the end of April

You don't need a vaccine, just wear a face mask.

 

[jamesbrown]

indeed

This is precisely why now is the time to go long

Keep an eye on China, that's where we're heading; virtually no new cases.

The Covid stats out of China are like the economic stats out of China. Fake news.

The problem with going long in any serious way at this stage is that too many questions remain unanswered. If there’s a second wave when restrictions are substantively relaxed, markets will tank. In the mean time, the economic recovery is looking far less likely to be V-shaped.

On the upside, the vast amount of stimulus does point to the stock markets getting way ahead of themselves, which is an opportunity. But going long in a big way looks like a massive punt to me.

 

[BlasterBates]

The Covid stats out of China are like the economic stats out of China. Fake news.

The problem with going long in any serious way at this stage is that too many questions remain unanswered. If there’s a second wave when restrictions are substantively relaxed, markets will tank. In the mean time, the economic recovery is looking far less likely to be V-shaped.

On the upside, the vast amount of stimulus does point to the stock markets getting way ahead of themselves, which is an opportunity. But going long in a big way looks like a massive punt to me.

But the reality is the goods coming out of China. That is what our company is seeing,

China is opening up.

 

[darmstadt]

The Covid stats out of China are like the economic stats out of China. Fake news.

Do you actually have proof of that?

 

[jamesbrown]

But the reality is the goods coming out of China. That is what our company is seeing,

China is opening up.

Sure, but what you cannot rely on (until it’s too late) is the reported impact that is having on Covid transmission.

 

[jamesbrown]

Do you actually have proof of that?

That China massages its economic stats?

 

[BlasterBates]

Sure, but what you cannot rely on (until it’s too late) is the reported impact that is having on Covid transmission.

China opened up at the beginning of the month. Companies like Siemens are announcing that they're still ramping up production in their factories in China.

However we will see.

 

[BlasterBates]

That China massages its economic stats?

The reality are the number Apple stores, Ford factories, GM factories and huge amount of goods coming out of China. Whatever the stats may or may not say, China is one very big economy.

 

[jamesbrown]

China opened up at the beginning of the month. Companies like Siemens are announcing that they're still ramping up production in their factories in China.

However we will see.

Right. I’m not saying the markets won’t take a one way ticket to the moon. As the saying goes, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But there is a chasm between the markets and the real economy. I’m just very skeptical that they will trend upwards for long given the many unanswered questions about the cause and the massive economic effects, which are yet to be fully revealed. Remember, there were some serious underlying problems in the real economy coming into this historic recession. It’s not a certainty that the economic crisis won’t turn into a financial crisis.

 

[WTFH]

That China massages its economic stats?

Which makes it different from the UK, US, Germany, etc, how?