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Previously on "DOOM: "Omicron Covid cases ‘doubling every two to three days’ in UK""

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  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by malvolio View Post

    But the substantive point stands, At 600 per, that's about a quarter of Covid deaths, when covid was probably at its peak.
    At the peak (a year ago today) the UK sat around 8,400 deaths per week

    Originally posted by malvolio View Post
    The real point is that in a year or so we will have endemic covid and will be treating it exactly the same way as seasonal flu, with probably much the same outcomes.
    I'd expect so. The "good" thing is that when the finalised figures come out for 2021 (and the next few years), we'll see a drop in deaths from flu. This is one of the reasons why they track influenza and pneumonia, because a lot of illnesses start as flu but end up with the patient dying of pneumonia.
    I believe we would see a similar pattern for covid, it may end up that reporting the three together would be a good metric.

    Building up statistics over the next 5-10 years (and longer) will be interesting to see how many people survived covid but due to damage to their lungs (and other organs) that they sustained then find other health issues developing.

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  • jamesbrown
    replied
    Originally posted by malvolio View Post
    The real point is that in a year or so we will have endemic covid and will be treating it exactly the same way as seasonal flu, with probably much the same outcomes.
    Endemic, yes, but not necessarily the same as seasonal flue w/r to impacts and mitigation. The main difference is the transmissibility, which is much, much lower for seasonal flue than, say, omicron. In other words, you'll need to vaccinate a much larger fraction of the population to keep it getting out of control. It might be that the rates of hospitalization and deaths don't get totally out of control, as they have done, because T cells are long-lasting, but vaccine immunity wanes over time. The other concern is the rest of the world where rates are much, much higher and new variants can easily emerge. So, yes, in an ideal world, but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't work out quite like that.

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  • mattster
    replied
    Originally posted by malvolio View Post
    The real point is that in a year or so we will have endemic covid and will be treating it exactly the same way as seasonal flu, with probably much the same outcomes.
    Endemic Covid is a myth, apparently, since Covid is inherently a pandemic disease just like measles, small pox and others. We'll get sporadic Covid pandemics, but we won't have low levels of Covid circulating at all times.

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  • mattster
    replied
    Originally posted by NorthWestPerm2Contr View Post
    If it's reducing life expectancy from 85 to 84 then death is just brought forwards by a year on average. What's the purpose of life in any case? That's what we should really be asking and searching for. Hence religion, faith in God and the search for inner truths and inner dimensions to existence.
    Some actual stats for you here: https://www.health.org.uk/publicatio...a-proved-wrong

    If you can't be bothered clicking, Covid in the UK has, on average, taken just over 10 years of expected life per death. Flu seems to take just over 5, and kill many fewer in absolute numbers even in a bad year - so Covid is worse on every metric.

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  • malvolio
    replied
    Originally posted by WTFH View Post

    800 a week for the whole year?
    What's your source for that?
    The peak is about 800 per week in January if you consider influenza and pneumonia, but the weekly average is below 600.
    You're looking at the same site I was, I assume. Difference it, you read it properly...

    But the substantive point stands, At 600 per, that's about a quarter of Covid deaths, when covid was probably at its peak.

    Just looking at the flu, it averages down to about 30 per week, so when you read someone saying Covid is just like the flu, I would ask when was the last time we averaged 30 deaths per week on the covid charts?
    Equally, how many of those flu deaths were also counted as covid deaths...

    The real point is that in a year or so we will have endemic covid and will be treating it exactly the same way as seasonal flu, with probably much the same outcomes.

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by malvolio View Post
    I wonder how many are actually aware of the annual flu/pneumonia death rate, about 800 a week in 2020, about a third of those down to Covid (and those covid deaths are those who dies with covid as opposed to of covid),
    800 a week for the whole year?
    What's your source for that?
    The peak is about 800 per week in January if you consider influenza and pneumonia, but the weekly average is below 600.

    Just looking at the flu, it averages down to about 30 per week, so when you read someone saying Covid is just like the flu, I would ask when was the last time we averaged 30 deaths per week on the covid charts?

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  • malvolio
    replied
    I wonder how many are actually aware of the annual flu/pneumonia death rate, about 800 a week in 2020, about a third of those down to Covid (and those covid deaths are those who dies with covid as opposed to of covid),

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by WTFH View Post

    What you're getting today are the same vaccines as when they were first approved.

    The idea that the vaccines can be updated easily is true, but they still need to go through rigorous testing.
    I would expect that if we end up with annual boosters then the ones we have next time will be different to the the ones being used today.
    I had wondered why we hadn't already started to see "Now with added Delta protection" versions but perhaps Omicron is the first variant which merits any modifications, and obviously hasn't been around long.

    Leave a comment:


  • NorthWestPerm2Contr
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post
    It does appear things are not getting worse at least but with daily deaths in the 300s that's pretty bad, and deaths may yet to peak. Remember when hundreds dying every day was considered a really bad thing?
    You mean like when we had a bad flu season? Was never a cause for so much anxiety, isolation, fear and general insanity before? Death is an inevitable part of life, "death and taxes". So it really depends what context 300 deaths is in. If it's 300 people dying out of 1,000 then well, it's carnage. If it's reducing life expectancy from 85 to 84 then death is just brought forwards by a year on average. What's the purpose of life in any case? That's what we should really be asking and searching for. Hence religion, faith in God and the search for inner truths and inner dimensions to existence.

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post
    So here's a question are the vaccines all in current use still the 1.0 versions developed against Covid Classic (Alpha?) Every time there's a new variant "is the vaccine effective" is the hot question and we know the vaccine is very good against Kent/Delta and somewhat less so against Omicron ("good enough" perhaps an accurate assessment)

    We've been told that vaccines can be updated to new variants very quickly, using the plug-n-play analogy, but has this yet happened? Is the AZ/Pfizer jab you get today the exact same stuff you did when they first launched?
    What you're getting today are the same vaccines as when they were first approved.

    The idea that the vaccines can be updated relatively easily is true, but they still need to go through rigorous testing.
    I would expect that if we end up with annual boosters then the ones we have next time will be different to the the ones being used today.

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  • jamesbrown
    replied
    No changes for variants as far as I'm aware. Some companies have said they could do it (e.g., within 100 days for Pfizer) if it were necessary, but I'm not sure it has really proven necessary yet and there are obvious trade-offs w/r to production and saleability (would you really want the "old" one, even if it afforded reasonable protection?). As to whether they are actively working on them, I think so, but that is different from them reaching production. I think there is also work underway on more generally applicable vaccines (i.e., "one to rule them all"), so the work is towards generalisation as well as specialisation, I think. You can take this fwiw - just following it with a passing interest, no expertise.

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    So here's a question are the vaccines all in current use still the 1.0 versions developed against Covid Classic (Alpha?) Every time there's a new variant "is the vaccine effective" is the hot question and we know the vaccine is very good against Kent/Delta and somewhat less so against Omicron ("good enough" perhaps an accurate assessment)

    We've been told that vaccines can be updated to new variants very quickly, using the plug-n-play analogy, but has this yet happened? Is the AZ/Pfizer jab you get today the exact same stuff you did when they first launched?

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    It does appear things are not getting worse at least but with daily deaths in the 300s that's pretty bad, and deaths may yet to peak. Remember when hundreds dying every day was considered a really bad thing?

    Leave a comment:


  • WTFH
    replied
    Originally posted by AtW View Post
    109k infections, hospitalisations seems to be slowing down...

    Past the peak or not?
    Past peak of testing.
    Hospitalisations slowing down would be a positive if there were beds and staff available to deal with them, I suspect some people are finding that they are being turned away or referred to their GP.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    109k infections, hospitalisations seems to be slowing down...

    Past the peak or not?

    Leave a comment:

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