Reply to: Bank of England governor Mark Carney upbeat on UK growth

[scooterscot]

You have, of course, bet the farm on this outcome.

History exists to teach the wise how to avoid the errors of the past. The fool walks on for a 2nd helping.

[scooterscot]

If Scotland leaves the union, it will cripple Edinburgh's commercial centre. Offices will have to relocate south of the border to continue working within the new UK.

My prediction is the union will leave the union before Scotland has anything to do with it. It's already happening... sometimes we miss the obvious right under our noses because we believe it cannot happen. That's doesn't mean it'll not happen.

There's more going on throughout the country besides, London and Edinburgh.

[The_Equalizer]

Will not happen in our lifetimes. More likely North Ireland and Scotland will break away from the UK creating their own version of the pound resulting in a sudden reduction in tax revenues. Treasury will print the pound into oblivion, thereby solving the debt issues and unbalanced economy in one swipe.

“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” – Historian Arnold Toynbee - and Wrexit is the noose.

You have, of course, bet the farm on this outcome.

[LondonManc]

Will not happen in our lifetimes. More likely North Ireland and Scotland will break away from the UK creating their own version of the pound resulting in a sudden reduction in tax revenues. Treasury will print the pound into oblivion, thereby solving the debt issues and unbalanced economy in one swipe.

“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” – Historian Arnold Toynbee - and Wrexit is the noose.

If Scotland leaves the union, it will cripple Edinburgh's commercial centre. Offices will have to relocate south of the border to continue working within the new UK.

[Hobosapien]

He's not a politician.

...

Fair enough, "like a typical slimy politician".

[scooterscot]

A government that will live within its means is needed.

Will not happen in our lifetimes. More likely North Ireland and Scotland will break away from the UK creating their own version of the pound resulting in a sudden reduction in tax revenues. Treasury will print the pound into oblivion, thereby solving the debt issues and unbalanced economy in one swipe.

“Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder.” – Historian Arnold Toynbee - and Wrexit is the noose.

[GreenMirror]

how much of the debt has been paid down, or are we now borrowing in good times as well as bad?

Its default by stealth. Sadly 1989 looks like an aberration.

A government that will live within its means is needed.

[Old Greg]

He's not a politician.

There is no point troubling these people with facts.

[LondonManc]

Surprisingly, vetran provides the best evidence. I’ve nearly fallen out of my chair.

As I wrote above,


Between 2007 and 2010 there were extreme measures required to dig our way out of a global financial crisis. “Lean times” by most people’s measures and still falls under Brown’s definition.

Since then we’ve had austerity. Have we also had growth / good times? Either way, how much of the debt has been paid down, or are we now borrowing in good times as well as bad?

We're still in bad times. A massive crash like 2008 exposed too much over-borrowing at both the corporate level (too much risk taken on) and individual level (credit cards, 6x self-cert mortgages, store cards, etc.). While measures have been introduced in the banking industry (Basel III, BIS top exposures, etc.) and accepted, there is obviously a grumbling among the public that they have to cutback too. It's clearly all the fault of the banks that individuals were allowed to spend beyond their means and now they aren't.

[meridian]

Bank of England governor Mark Carney upbeat on UK growth

which considering as shown on your graph it was at about 72% and rising when Labour were kicked out in May 2010 its hard to see how the Tories are doing a bad job keeping the country going and honouring most of Labour's spending yet they are constantly accused of savage tory cuts.

Is that enough evidence for you?

Surprisingly, vetran provides the best evidence. I’ve nearly fallen out of my chair.

As I wrote above,

Brown was basing this on a (reasonable) objective of saving in the good times to spend in the lean times. Having a war chest, in contractor terms.

Unfortunately the last 10 years have been spent borrowing and spending (for the government) and “austerity” (for the rest of us).

Between 2007 and 2010 there were extreme measures required to dig our way out of a global financial crisis. “Lean times” by most people’s measures and still falls under Brown’s definition.

Since then we’ve had austerity. Have we also had growth / good times? Either way, how much of the debt has been paid down, or are we now borrowing in good times as well as bad?

[LondonManc]

The US dollar is about to collapse, the pound will surely follow it given the politics of the day as businesses line up to move their interests elsewhere.

Interest rates can only move up, but economic growth when businesses are holding back investment? Even a laymen understands that makes no sense.

There's always someone betting the dollar will collapse. There's nothing to replace it - nobody trusts the Yuan, the Yen and Sterling aren't big enough, the Euro is a joke. A dollar "collapse" - let's face it, these things can be relative - could mean anything from a few points to several tens of cents and someone will claim they're right if it drops a little. If the dollar collapsed, it would take half the world with it, so it simply won't happen.

The UK will be fine too; we're our timezone's financial capital.Not to mention Standard & Poor's restoring our AAA credit rating status from AA+ after a certain referendum result in 2016....

[vetran]

Oh God, not you too.

Evidence. Stats.

Here, let me help you:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit..._national_debt

Debt as a ratio to GDP between 1997 and 2007 hovered under 40%.

It now sits at over 80%.

Feel free to counter with any evidence you may have that shows differently in any real, measurable way.

which considering as shown on your graph it was at about 72% and rising when Labour were kicked out in May 2010 its hard to see how the Tories are doing a bad job keeping the country going and honouring most of Labour's spending yet they are constantly accused of savage tory cuts.

Is that enough evidence for you?

[Zigenare]

Oh God, not you too.

Evidence. Stats.

Here, let me help you:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit..._national_debt

Debt as a ratio to GDP between 1997 and 2007 hovered under 40%.

It now sits at over 80%.

Feel free to counter with any evidence you may have that shows differently in any real, measurable way.

This might help you....
UK National Deficit

The UK deficit started out in 1947 at 3 percent of GDP and then immediately went into surplus, as the Attlee government worked to reduce the huge debt racked up in World War II. The surplus peaked at 6.3 percent of GDP in 1950 and then declined to a surplus of 0.9 percent GDP in 1961.

But then surpluses started to climb again reaching 7.6 percent GDP in 1970 during the Wilson government before declining sharply. The UK scored a deficit of 0.1 percent GDP in 1975 for the first time in nearly 20 years.

The UK ran a budget deficit till the end of the Thatcher years, with a peak of 2.2 percent of GDP in 1981. In the mid to late 1980s deficits declined, and went into surplus in 1989 at 1.9 percent GDP.

Deficits returned in the Major years and the ERM crisis, reaching 5.7 percent GDP in 1994. But then the deficit came down and went into surplus, maxing out at a surplus of 2.3 percent GDP in 2001.

Moderate deficits were the rule in the mid 2000s Blair years. But the deficit rocketed upwards to 6.9 percent in 2010 in response to the Crash of 2008 and the Great Recession. In the recent recovery, the budget deficit has declined to less than one percent of GDP.

[meridian]

Here you go

I'm afraid there is no money

Oh God, not you too.

Evidence. Stats.

Here, let me help you:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit..._national_debt

Debt as a ratio to GDP between 1997 and 2007 hovered under 40%.

It now sits at over 80%.

Feel free to counter with any evidence you may have that shows differently in any real, measurable way.

[d000hg]

He's a typical slimy politician

He's not a politician.

Did anyone watch the coverage. He made the comment "...is down to the weather, not the climate" and awkwardly had to continue when nobody laughed.