Could IR35 become Boris's Poll Tax?

[TwoWolves]

Everything will be blamed on Brexit.

It's no accident that it was the May/Hammond government that finally timetabled the private sector rollout.

[Snooky]

The flood gates from India will be opened and the market rate for all skills will be approximately £35,000.

Exactly this.

The immigration white paper produced by the Government just over a year ago proposed relaxing visa rules, skills requirements and minimum salary levels for non-EU workers to counteract any effect on free movement between the UK and EU nations post-Brexit.

Read it and weep: The UK's future skills-based immigration system - GOV.UK

[suityou01]

Getting this back on topic, I think it's more likely that the knock on effect to businesses that hire contractors would hold more sway than the losses incurred by individual contractors.

What's going to happen when they all start saying hey can't get the staff because of this?

This is kind of what I wanted to do some napkin war gaming about.

Firstly there will be a sharp rise in unemployment figures, and a sharp drop in tax take. Presumably the government has forecast this. The markets may also have priced this in. Or maybe not.

If the pound devalues further, then the cost of living will increase putting the squeeze on those already on the breadline. Suddenly this starts driving the news cycle. The lefty Red tops will begin filling their boots. One imagines a failed election pledge from Mr Javid will be seen as something of an open goal.

Suddenly these permie types, and giro birds become aware something is wrong. They don't understand or care about IT contractors or HMRC. They are told its Brexit related. This is the first squeeze put on Boris's cabinet, which will be unconvincingly put forth by magic grandpa until Rebecca Wrong-Daily takes the helm.

Some highbrow analysis by the FT and the Torygraph on page 67 highlights the real issues and goes largely unnoticed by the gurning masses. The markets notice and the pound sinks lower. Rinse and repeat.

The skills drain is now successfully in effect and the freelance herd is now thinned greatly. Brexit related projects fall behind. This grabs a few headlines and the first mention of IR35 goes mainstream. Some big consultancies put some talking heads on channel 4 news to opine. Public awareness grows.

Meanwhile India is supplying record numbers of consultants, and the drop in tax take in PAYE, VAT, Corporation tax and dividend tax is being accutely felt by HM Treasury. The first post Brexit budget indicates more borrowing, which is explained as predictable short term pain from Brexit.





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[eek]

Getting this back on topic, I think it's more likely that the knock on effect to businesses that hire contractors would hold more sway than the losses incurred by individual contractors.

What's going to happen when they all start saying hey can't get the staff because of this?

The flood gates from India will be opened and the market rate for all skills will be approximately £35,000.

[Martin Bank Holiday]

Getting this back on topic, I think it's more likely that the knock on effect to businesses that hire contractors would hold more sway than the losses incurred by individual contractors.

What's going to happen when they all start saying hey can't get the staff because of this?

[NotAllThere]

So it's fair that a granny living in a big house she's lived in all her life had to pay massively more tax than a bunch of half-4rsed chavs with a family of six 5hitty kids, lining up a convoy of dustbins?

So it's fair that a married couple with one stay-at-home spouse raising the kids have to pay twice than a couple of DINKies? Or that a banker pays 0.0001% of his income in poll tax and a hard-working warehouse manager has to pay 1% of his income in poll tax? You seem to have adopted the HMRC definition of "fair".

The fact is that no tax system is fair. What governments have to do to prevent unrest is to make it seem fairish, and where it is unfair, not too unfair, and doesn't clobber the poorer end of society. The failed all three of these on the poll tax.

[suityou01]

And, further to the immediate above, Poll Tax impacted everyone in the UK, and IR35 etc does not even come close to the same numbers.

When the dominoes fall it will affect everyone. Sorry I should have been clearer. That's what I meant by dumpster fire. It will teach me not to fling Americanisms around on a UK forum.

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[eek]

So it's fair that a granny living in a big house she's lived in all her life had to pay massively more tax than a bunch of half-4rsed chavs with a family of six 5hitty kids, lining up a convoy of dustbins?

Yes because that's how the tax system works and has done for 30 odd years. And it's little different from when she originally bought the house which would have had a rateable value higher than smaller houses in the same street.

[oliverson]

This is untrue more often than not when it comes to public services.

Level of payment and level of consumption are not linked in health, education, emergency services, transport infrastructure, defence - I'm sure I could think of plenty more.

I could sort of see where the poll tax was coming from in terms of spreading the load but Thatcher's mistake was to not lighten the load more at the low income end.

Despite all that, it was implemented and we still have it so, even if IR35 turns out to be Boris's poll tax (and somehow I can't see tens of thousands of contractors holding pitched battles with mounted police in Trafalgar Square), it will remain even if Boris doesn't.

All IMHO of course.

So it's fair that a granny living in a big house she's lived in all her life had to pay massively more tax than a bunch of half-4rsed chavs with a family of six 5hitty kids, lining up a convoy of dustbins?

[Snooky]

In everything we do, we generally pay for what we consume

This is untrue more often than not when it comes to public services.

Level of payment and level of consumption are not linked in health, education, emergency services, transport infrastructure, defence - I'm sure I could think of plenty more.

I could sort of see where the poll tax was coming from in terms of spreading the load but Thatcher's mistake was to not lighten the load more at the low income end.

Despite all that, it was implemented and we still have it so, even if IR35 turns out to be Boris's poll tax (and somehow I can't see tens of thousands of contractors holding pitched battles with mounted police in Trafalgar Square), it will remain even if Boris doesn't.

All IMHO of course.