How long do you think the current UK economic and employment downturn will last for?

[MrMark]

However, I believe jobs are steadily coming back to manufacturing and engineering and we are seeing exports rising although not as quickly as some would like.

A steady recovery may prove to be for the best if it is sustained.

It'll be interesting to see if Dave n Gideon's trips to China and India really do help our exports. We currently export more to Spain than we do to China, which given the size of the Chinese economy, is astounding. There must be lots of room to increase exports, even if it's just whisky!

[MrMark]

In early 2000 they indeed tried moderate (compared to the Feds/BoE/EB) money printing but that did not have much effect, which is good as it did not make things massively worse.

it seems to be the danger with QE. 200 billion? Hmmm, not much happens. Let's try 400 billion then...

[AtW]

it seems to be the danger with QE. 200 billion? Hmmm, not much happens. Let's try 400 billion then...

QE was used for 2 things:
1) purchase tulip assets at overinflated prices from banks to prevent them marking them down to real value and going bust
2) purchase Govt bonds/gilts because China no longer wishes to do so - banks used to do that so that they create illusion of demand but then they resell those bonds back to BoE/etc.

What happens with this money banks got? They put them into commodities markets - that's why oil, gold, food etc keep going up, that's where all the printed money end up - all this will import inflation back into countries big time, where as banks will pocket hefty profits.

HTH

[OwlHoot]

Japan got into a similar debt bubble economy of public spending, private debt spending and property bubble mixed in with
some dodgy bank dealings and has not yet come out of it, that was back in the 90's. ...

I thought Japan's problem was the opposite - As an ageing society, everyone was obsessively saving their money instead of spending it and stimulating the economy.

The situation wasn't helped, and isn't today, by their manufacturing being undercut by south east Asian countries, and India and China, or by the fact that they're perched on a large volcanic rock with few natural resources (and not that much cultivable or even inhabitable land area).

Talking about economics, I wonder where HAB has been for the last week or two.

[Green Mango]

I thought Japan's problem was the opposite - As an ageing society, everyone was obsessively saving their money instead of spending it and stimulating the economy.

The situation wasn't helped, and isn't today, by their manufacturing being undercut by south east Asian countries, and India and China, or by the fact that they're perched on a large volcanic rock with few natural resources (and not that much cultivable or even inhabitable land area).

Talking about economics, I wonder where HAB has been for the last week or two.

I think this depends on which time frame we are talking. Back in the 90s it was property bubble economy time involving the banks so some element of their problems were similar to ours.

Recent press from Japan has emphasized the ageing society bit obsessively saving. Well they may be old, but they may be obsessively saving because of the earlier finnancial crash.

I mean many people in the UK are spending less and saving more because they are worried they might need money if there on the dole.

This is a feeling which is not unknown to contractors with there warchest which should perhaps be called dolechest.

[Incognito]

I've never had it so good. High rates and low mortgage.

[EternalOptimist]

I've never had it so good. High rates and low mortgage.

mortgage ?

[Incognito]

mortgage ?

Yup, I've still got my own teeth as well though you old fart.

[Green Mango]

I've never had it so good. High rates and low mortgage.

Yeah well, a downturn hits every one differently.
Engineering is always the poor relation to richer sectors.

The contractors on my site had a 10% pay cut at the start of the year those that
are renewed into next year are just hoping for a pay freeze.

Still can't complain that better for many who have lost jobs....

[Green Mango]

it seems to be the danger with QE. 200 billion? Hmmm, not much happens. Let's try 400 billion then...

QE appears to be a double edged sword.

We print money and give the money to the banks.

In turn the £ dives and inflation takes off.

Inflation means prices rise and familys have less money to buy goods which in turn hurts the
economy. People with savings get poorer, people with debt benefit. A money transfer effectively
goes on.