That party that never happened, or did it, or didn't it.

[WTFH]

Definitely not an attempt at sunlit-uplands deflecting by the Express, but they are running a story about how imports from outside the EU are up by 822%.

Although the devil is in the detail...
1. It was for the month of January last year (not the whole year, just the one month)
2. It was reported in May last year
3. It was for one vegetable - courgettes
4. It was for imports from Morocco

So, the actual story is that the UK imported more of one vegetable from one country that happens to be outside the EU in a particular month than it had for the same month a year previously.
Not exports, not some great trade deal, not wide-ranging, but a great distraction to those who need it.

[DaveB]

Easily done if needed, although she'd have to renounce her peerage too, before being dropped into a byelection in a safe seat. There actually has been a lord as PM before but I believe it is no longer allowed, but still possible to be part of the cabinet.

If they tried that I think you'd see a concerted effort from the two other main parties to agree not to fight each other on that seat and vote tactically to win it.

[jamesbrown]

Both the Con party leadership and the PM require you to be an MP at the time of being elected, although losing your seat during an election while PM would be a more interesting situation (if your party retained power).

[jamesbrown]

Leftfield possibility (and rather a good one, IMO): Ruth Davidson?

Certainly a plausible candidate to a reasonably sane electorate, but the Tory membership isn't exactly that. I suppose it's remotely possible if the polling showed that she was would put the Tories emphatically ahead, because all electorates like a winner but, realistically, she is too left wing and too much of a remainer for this electorate and she probably wouldn't want the job anyway.

For much the same reason, Sunak has probably got it in the bag if he can get through the upcoming energy/cost-of-living crisis and he didn't attend any illegal parties. Although Truss is appealing to the grassroots, they will see the same polling about who is more popular among the wider electorate and Sunak is really the only one that comes close to a pre 2020/21 Johnson. The rest would probably lose the next election for the Tories. Personally, I am not a fan of Sunak, but he could probably beat Starmer or, at least, not lose.

[mattster]

She isn't an MP.

You need to be an MP to be PM.

Easily done if needed, although she'd have to renounce her peerage too, before being dropped into a byelection in a safe seat. There actually has been a lord as PM before but I believe it is no longer allowed, but still possible to be part of the cabinet.

[SueEllen]

Leftfield possibility (and rather a good one, IMO): Ruth Davidson?

She isn't an MP.

You need to be an MP to be PM.

[mattster]

Well, Truss and Sunak. Gove, no chance. Mogg, no chance. But, more often than not, it doesn't work out for the frontrunner; I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see Nadhim Zahawi in the mix, for example - more likely than Mogg or Gove.

Leftfield possibility (and rather a good one, IMO): Ruth Davidson?

[jamesbrown]

Front runners? Truss, Sunk, Gove.
Outsiders: Patel, Javid, Mogg.

Well, Truss and Sunak. Gove, no chance. Mogg, no chance. But, more often than not, it doesn't work out for the frontrunner; I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see Nadhim Zahawi in the mix, for example - more likely than Mogg or Gove.

[jamesbrown]

Starmer is a gift for the Tories. No particular hate, I think, it's more that he's a bit hapless, a bit of a non-entity. A bit meh. If that's the choice at the next GE, turnout probably won't be very high. But I assume that won't be the choice, not now.

[mattster]

I don't think Mogg has much desire for it does he?

I've never got the impression he had any interest, no. Has he ever put himself forward in the past? I suspect that even he has the self awareness to realise that he is unelectable and, as as mentioned above I think he has quite a bit going on the "business" side that he would prefer left unscrutinised.