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R>1

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  • minestrone
    replied
    It's only spreading in low vitamin D areas with below average take up of the vaccine where they don't bother their arse staying apart.

    Keep to pubs and you will be quite safe.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post
    Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference.
    Beyond point of "we are now totally ****ed" it sure won't make a big difference, but it enough to shift beyond that point? That's what makes the difference: 60% on top of Kent's variant might just do it.

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by AtW View Post

    Transmissibility in itself is a BIG ******* DEAL as it directly affects R number.

    If that variant from India is indeed 60% more transmissible than Kent variant _and_ Vauxhall Zeneca not as effective then we are ****ed, again.
    Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference. You can pretty much assume everyone you have close contact with is going to catch it.

    Now lack of vaccine efficacy IS a big deal. But that doesn't seem to be proven.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post
    Transmissibility in itself is not such a big deal, especially when it's already so very infectious to begin with.
    Transmissibility in itself is a BIG ******* DEAL as it directly affects R number.

    If that variant from India is indeed 60% more transmissible than Kent variant _and_ Vauxhall Zeneca not as effective then we are ****ed, again.

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Our dominant is already far more transmissible than Covid Classic and this hasn't impacted the recovery. Transmissibility in itself is not such a big deal, especially when it's already so very infectious to begin with.

    I think we can probably safely assume a big increase among the young as things open up from next week, the 18-30 range who are not offered vaccines and are the least cautious anyway. Maybe we just let that burn itself out?

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    “Prof Tom Wenseleers, at the University of Leuven in Belgium, who worked closely with UK scientists on the spread of the Kent variant, also said the Indian variant could be 60% more transmissible than the current most widespread one.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inister-admits

    New lockdown guaranteed - but first Boris will pile bodies in the tens of thousands, again.

    Leave a comment:


  • vetran
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post

    How long before the bring back in local lockdowns?
    Hopefully soon in aTw's case its a public service!

    Leave a comment:


  • d000hg
    replied
    Originally posted by AtW View Post
    Hospitality businesses in a town experiencing a fresh spike in Covid cases have told of their concerns as pubs and cafes prepare to open indoors.

    Bolton has one of the highest instances of the Indian variant in the UK and is seeing a particularly sharp rise in cases among unvaccinated under-25s.

    As lockdown rules prepare to ease on Monday, pubs and restaurants in the town are sounding a note of caution.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-57075618

    Stock up on them cans before new PANIC starts…
    How long before the bring back in local lockdowns?

    Leave a comment:


  • minestrone
    replied
    It's rising here, just in certain groups, who have all taken today and tomorrow off, to not have massive family parties.


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    I expect a local lockdown in 10 days.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    Hospitality businesses in a town experiencing a fresh spike in Covid cases have told of their concerns as pubs and cafes prepare to open indoors.

    Bolton has one of the highest instances of the Indian variant in the UK and is seeing a particularly sharp rise in cases among unvaccinated under-25s.

    As lockdown rules prepare to ease on Monday, pubs and restaurants in the town are sounding a note of caution.”

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-57075618

    Stock up on them cans before new PANIC starts…

    Leave a comment:

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