“Sage modelling shows (see charts below). If the new variant is just 10 to 20 per cent more transmissible we will only see a mild bump in new hospitalisations. But if it’s 30 to 50 per cent more transmissible the numbers of infections grow so large that hospitalisations quickly rocket beyond the NHS’s capacity to cope.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...orried-indian/
- Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
- Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!
R>1
Collapse
X
Collapse
-
Originally posted by AtW View Post“Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/
If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*
* beyond point of death
But by Thursday she needed to keep this out of the news...
Scotland’s education system weakest in UK, according to new report (telegraph.co.uk)
...and building a panic, then closing the pubs did the job.
Leave a comment:
-
Bham - infections up 20% on last week
Lowest point is passed - we are on way up now
Leave a comment:
-
“Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/
If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*
* beyond point of deathLast edited by AtW; 14 May 2021, 19:56.Leave a comment:
-
Original strain had R in region of 3, Kent variant 60% more transmissible, if we get 60% on top of that R will be well above 4 - and we won’t get 75% vaccination levels any time soon, possibly neverLeave a comment:
-
Originally posted by d000hg View Post
Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference.
R is affected by:
Transmissibilty
Opportunity
Duration of infection
Susceptibility in the population.
Of these, only opportunity and susceptibility can be tackled. The former through measures such as lockdown and social distancing. The latter through vaccination.
The percentage of people who need to be vaccinated for herd immunity is 1-1/R. So if R is 4, then 75% need to be vaccinated. If it is 18 (measles for example), 95% need to be vaccinated. And that's assuming a 100% effective vaccine.
So yes, sure, beyond a certain point it won't make a difference. But that point is rather high.
Leave a comment:
-
Originally posted by minestrone View PostIt's rising here, just in certain groups, who have all taken today and tomorrow off, to not have massive family parties.
I expect a local lockdown in 10 days.
(Apart from the fact that I've got my jabs, so I'm alright Jack.)Leave a comment:
-
Originally posted by d000hg View Post
Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference. You can pretty much assume everyone you have close contact with is going to catch it.
Now lack of vaccine efficacy IS a big deal. But that doesn't seem to be proven.
So I wouldn't just assume everyone is going to get infected.. those are the people with the closest contact possible and still only 50% are getting infected.
They have no idea if something is actually 60% more transmissible anyway, it's based off a ton of assumptions and it's a garbage number. It might not even be more transmissible at all, just might be dominant strain at the same time infections increase due to other reasons. It's impossible to measure accurately since none of this analysis is being done in a controlled environment and rules and behaviors are constantly changing.Leave a comment:
-
“According to the latest scientific modelling by government advisers, a variant that is as transmissible as the Kent variant, and which has some vaccine resistance, “could easily lead to another peak of double or treble the size of that seen in January 2021 if no interventions were taken”. “
https://www.ft.com/content/a6730381-...9-ef158e48e058
But don’t you worry - CUK’s own Dumb and Dumber say it’s okLast edited by AtW; 13 May 2021, 20:23.Leave a comment:
- Home
- News & Features
- First Timers
- IR35 / S660 / BN66
- Employee Benefit Trusts
- Agency Workers Regulations
- MSC Legislation
- Limited Companies
- Dividends
- Umbrella Company
- VAT / Flat Rate VAT
- Job News & Guides
- Money News & Guides
- Guide to Contracts
- Successful Contracting
- Contracting Overseas
- Contractor Calculators
- MVL
- Contractor Expenses
Advertisers
Contractor Services
CUK News
- Streamline Your Retirement with iSIPP: A Solution for Contractor Pensions Sep 1 09:13
- Making the most of pension lump sums: overview for contractors Sep 1 08:36
- Umbrella company tribunal cases are opening up; are your wages subject to unlawful deductions, too? Aug 31 08:38
- Contractors, relabelling 'labour' as 'services' to appear 'fully contracted out' won't dupe IR35 inspectors Aug 31 08:30
- How often does HMRC check tax returns? Aug 30 08:27
- Work-life balance as an IT contractor: 5 top tips from a tech recruiter Aug 30 08:20
- Autumn Statement 2023 tipped to prioritise mental health, in a boost for UK workplaces Aug 29 08:33
- Final reminder for contractors to respond to the umbrella consultation (closing today) Aug 29 08:09
- Top 5 most in demand cyber security contract roles Aug 25 08:38
- Changes to the right to request flexible working are incoming, but how will contractors be affected? Aug 24 08:25
Leave a comment: