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R>1

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  • AtW
    replied
    “Sage modelling shows (see charts below). If the new variant is just 10 to 20 per cent more transmissible we will only see a mild bump in new hospitalisations. But if it’s 30 to 50 per cent more transmissible the numbers of infections grow so large that hospitalisations quickly rocket beyond the NHS’s capacity to cope.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...orried-indian/

    Leave a comment:


  • minestrone
    replied
    Originally posted by AtW View Post
    “Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/

    If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*


    * beyond point of death
    There isn't any evidence that there is a new strain here, none, and while there was a few days of unusually high numbers in Glasgow, they dropped very significantly towards the end of the week.

    But by Thursday she needed to keep this out of the news...

    Scotland’s education system weakest in UK, according to new report (telegraph.co.uk)

    ...and building a panic, then closing the pubs did the job.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    Bham - infections up 20% on last week

    Lowest point is passed - we are on way up now

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    “Nicola Sturgeon has cancelled the easing of lockdown in Glasgow on Monday following evidence the more transmissible Indian Covid variant is "driving" the surge of cases in the city.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...w-amid-indian/

    If only Nicola read this forum - she’d know that our own resident infectious diseases expert dodard said that higher transmiseibility does not matter*


    * beyond point of death
    Last edited by AtW; 14 May 2021, 19:56.

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  • AtW
    replied
    Original strain had R in region of 3, Kent variant 60% more transmissible, if we get 60% on top of that R will be well above 4 - and we won’t get 75% vaccination levels any time soon, possibly never

    Leave a comment:


  • NotAllThere
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post

    Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference.
    Not so.

    R is affected by:

    Transmissibilty
    Opportunity
    Duration of infection
    Susceptibility in the population.

    Of these, only opportunity and susceptibility can be tackled. The former through measures such as lockdown and social distancing. The latter through vaccination.

    The percentage of people who need to be vaccinated for herd immunity is 1-1/R. So if R is 4, then 75% need to be vaccinated. If it is 18 (measles for example), 95% need to be vaccinated. And that's assuming a 100% effective vaccine.

    So yes, sure, beyond a certain point it won't make a difference. But that point is rather high.




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  • cojak
    replied
    Originally posted by minestrone View Post
    It's rising here, just in certain groups, who have all taken today and tomorrow off, to not have massive family parties.


    Click image for larger version  Name:	?u=https%3A%2F%2Funiversoxmen.com.br%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F12%2Fwandavision-trailer-agatha-harkness.jpg Views:	0 Size:	75.4 KB ID:	4162342

    I expect a local lockdown in 10 days.
    No different to 25th and 26th December 2020 then...

    (Apart from the fact that I've got my jabs, so I'm alright Jack.)

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied
    Wow, 3 early winning candidates for CUK COTY 2021

    Leave a comment:


  • jayn200
    replied
    Originally posted by d000hg View Post

    Beyond a certain point, increased transmissibility isn't going to make a big difference. You can pretty much assume everyone you have close contact with is going to catch it.

    Now lack of vaccine efficacy IS a big deal. But that doesn't seem to be proven.
    How transmissible do you think it is?... Only like half of people (depends which study you look at) who live with someone with an active symptomatic infection... get infected.

    So I wouldn't just assume everyone is going to get infected.. those are the people with the closest contact possible and still only 50% are getting infected.

    They have no idea if something is actually 60% more transmissible anyway, it's based off a ton of assumptions and it's a garbage number. It might not even be more transmissible at all, just might be dominant strain at the same time infections increase due to other reasons. It's impossible to measure accurately since none of this analysis is being done in a controlled environment and rules and behaviors are constantly changing.

    Leave a comment:


  • AtW
    replied


    “According to the latest scientific modelling by government advisers, a variant that is as transmissible as the Kent variant, and which has some vaccine resistance, “could easily lead to another peak of double or treble the size of that seen in January 2021 if no interventions were taken”. “

    https://www.ft.com/content/a6730381-...9-ef158e48e058

    But don’t you worry - CUK’s own Dumb and Dumber say it’s ok
    Last edited by AtW; 13 May 2021, 20:23.

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