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Another gloomy Brexit forecast. If you're a Remnant.

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    #41
    Originally posted by GB9 View Post
    And middle Brexit would have been preferable but if the 'four freedoms' are non negotiable as appears the case, then we are in or out. So next best is out but with free trade in both directions.
    Liechtenstein has an opt out of FOM, there is a precedent. I don't GAF about the fact it is tiny, and non comparable. It is a country in Europe who is part of the customs union and has an FOM opt out. Where there is a will there is a way. Look at all the special relationships with micro states in Europe:

    Monaco
    San Marino
    The Vatican
    The Fareo Islands
    Monaco
    The Channel Islands
    Isle of Mann
    Andorra


    But ideology will come before pragmatism, unless Le Penn and Wilders succeed.

    I do think May is playing it right, a bad deal and we walk. We are not beggars who will take anything.
    http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

    Comment


      #42
      Originally posted by sirja View Post
      completely omitting the fact most barriers to trade are regulatory not tariffs.
      It isn't really an issue. The UK already complies with EU regulation and will continue to do so after Brexit. I don't see a scenario where on BrexitDay+1 any regulation has been repealed. The 'Great Repeal Bill' is exactly the opposite of what it says, as instead of having a law which says "EU law applies", we'll have replacement laws which look like the EU laws which previously applied. The EU's Straight Banana Regulation will simply be carbon copied to the British Straight Banana Regulation. I'm sure it'll be used to sneak in some new laws.


      (Yes, I know there is no Straight Banana Regulation, it is an example so that average Question Time audience member can understand the point)
      Taking a break from contracting

      Comment


        #43
        Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View Post
        Liechtenstein has an opt out of FOM, there is a precedent. I don't GAF about the fact it is tiny, and non comparable. It is a country in Europe who is part of the customs union and has an FOM opt out. Where there is a will there is a way. Look at all the special relationships with micro states in Europe:

        Monaco
        San Marino
        The Vatican
        The Fareo Islands
        Monaco
        The Channel Islands
        Isle of Mann
        Andorra


        But ideology will come before pragmatism, unless Le Penn and Wilders succeed.

        I do think May is playing it right, a bad deal and we walk. We are not beggars who will take anything.
        If it is not comparable why reference it?

        Comment


          #44
          Originally posted by northernladyuk View Post
          If it is not comparable why reference it?
          Because the EU says FOM is INDIVISIBLE.

          And clearly it is not.
          http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

          Comment


            #45
            Originally posted by GB9 View Post
            I didn't notice the remain side mentioning further integration of a common army, or harmonisation of pensions or indeed the latest proposal for 1 or 2 % of income tax to go directly to Brussels to be used as the EU sees fit.
            They also didn't mention the plans to harmonise Corporate Tax across the EU, thus preventing Corporation Tax competition between member states. (which of course scuppers the minority support in Scotland for independence who think leaving the UK and becoming an EU member in their own right would give them more autonomy over taxation. This simply wont be the case in the future.

            The Scottish thing proves that even 310 years of union doesn't heal the divisions, there will always be an independence movement. That supports why the EU wont survive. (But OTOH, the USA managed it).
            Taking a break from contracting

            Comment


              #46
              Originally posted by chopper View Post
              They also didn't mention the plans to harmonise Corporate Tax across the EU, thus preventing Corporation Tax competition between member states. (which of course scuppers the minority support in Scotland for independence who think leaving the UK and becoming an EU member in their own right would give them more autonomy over taxation. This simply wont be the case in the future.

              The Scottish thing proves that even 310 years of union doesn't heal the divisions, there will always be an independence movement. That supports why the EU wont survive. (But OTOH, the USA managed it).
              Aren't corporate tax rates set on a state by state basis in the U.S.?
              http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

              Comment


                #47
                Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View Post
                Because the EU says FOM is INDIVISIBLE.

                And clearly it is not.
                Let's have a look:

                Free movement of workers is a fundamental principle of the Treaty enshrined in Article 45 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and developed by EU secondary legislation and the Case law of the Court of Justice. EU citizens are entitled to:
                • look for a job in another EU country
                • work there without needing a work permit
                • reside there for that purpose
                • stay there even after employment has finished
                • enjoy equal treatment with nationals in access to employment, working conditions and all other social and tax advantages

                EU nationals may also have certain types of health & social security coverage transferred to the country in which they go to seek work (see coordination of social security systems).
                Free movement of workers also applies, in general terms, to the countries in the European Economic Area: Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.
                People working in some occupations may also be able to have their professional qualifications recognised abroad (see mutual recognition of professional qualifications).
                EU social security coordination provides rules to protect the rights of people moving within the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.
                Free Movement - EU nationals - Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion - European Commission

                The states and territories you listed:

                Monaco
                San Marino
                The Vatican
                The Fareo (sic) Islands
                Monaco
                The Channel Islands (sic)
                Isle of Mann (sic)
                Andorra
                Are as far as I know not EU members. They are included as micro-states and territories within the Customs Union but not within the EU.

                So I guess that if the UK becomes a micro-state and leaves the EU, there is a precedent for joining the Customs Union without freedom of movement of labour, as long as the UK is content with the following co-existing condition established via the same precedent:

                One of the consequences of the customs union is that the European Union negotiates as a single entity in international trade deals such as the World Trade Organisation, instead of individual member states negotiating for themselves.
                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europea..._Customs_Union

                Comment


                  #48
                  Originally posted by chopper View Post
                  It isn't really an issue. The UK already complies with EU regulation and will continue to do so after Brexit. I don't see a scenario where on BrexitDay+1 any regulation has been repealed. The 'Great Repeal Bill' is exactly the opposite of what it says, as instead of having a law which says "EU law applies", we'll have replacement laws which look like the EU laws which previously applied. The EU's Straight Banana Regulation will simply be carbon copied to the British Straight Banana Regulation. I'm sure it'll be used to sneak in some new laws.
                  Yes. The "red tape" brigade are going to be disappointed because nothing will change; the "keep them out" brigade are going to be disappointed because immigration won't change. The sovereignty-nutters will claim victory because they have the illusion of sovereignty even though nothing is really any different, and the poorer traditionally working-class people who thought they were voting against globalisation are going to carry the can.

                  As said, ideology comes before pragmatism.
                  Will work inside IR35. Or for food.

                  Comment


                    #49
                    Originally posted by VectraMan View Post
                    Yes. The "red tape" brigade are going to be disappointed because nothing will change; the "keep them out" brigade are going to be disappointed because immigration won't change. The sovereignty-nutters will claim victory because they have the illusion of sovereignty even though nothing is really any different, and the poorer traditionally working-class people who thought they were voting against globalisation are going to carry the can.

                    As said, ideology comes before pragmatism.
                    The Tories' super rich buddies will clean up I expect, despite the solemn word of Jacob Rees-Mogg and his nanny that Brexit is a blow against the establishment.

                    Comment


                      #50
                      Originally posted by VectraMan View Post
                      Yes. The "red tape" brigade are going to be disappointed because nothing will change; the "keep them out" brigade are going to be disappointed because immigration won't change. The sovereignty-nutters will claim victory because they have the illusion of sovereignty even though nothing is really any different, and the poorer traditionally working-class people who thought they were voting against globalisation are going to carry the can.

                      As said, ideology comes before pragmatism.
                      OK. If nothing will change you won't be bothered by leaving.

                      Comment

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