State of the Market

[SchumiStars]

TGI Friday has gone bust, it is not a good market for pot washers or busboys.

Did anyone ever goto TGI Fridays?

[BlueSharp]

TGI Friday has gone bust, it is not a good market for pot washers or busboys.

[TheDude]

Just getting my feet under the table at my new public sector gig and it turns out plans to hand development to a large consultancy with a reputation for low pay and shoddy work have been brought forward and all subcontractors are at risk.

Looks like this could be my shortest ever gig and I have just gone through all the effort of starting a new company.

[willendure]

Even assuming that things are going sideways, you'd think that some projects would emerge at some stage. Otherwise how the hell are companies making money? there's only so many people you can sack to fake profits.

There are a lot of zombie companies right now, and a still approaching wall of zombie refinance. This means companies that borrowed cheaply in 2020 when interest rates were low, but are debt reliant and not profitable, will see 5 year loans mature in 2025 that they must refinance-or-die. If interest rates are put back low, its because of an emergency, it does not necessarily mean money will be available to all at good rates, since loan conditions will also be tighter. For example, in 2009, rates were very low but banks were not lending.

https://fortune.com/2024/06/07/zombi...ar-debt-loans/

[dsc]

I don't watch those, or buy into that narrative. I am saying there is going to be a deflationary event, not economic collapse. If there was a control board for the world economy, it would be flashing up all red warning signs at the moment - sure it might not happen, but the warning lights ARE all on. I actually hope you are right and we get blue skies and I am proved wrong. There is probably a melt-up in financial markets coming that I will miss out on as a result of my cautionary stance, but I am ok with that.

Even assuming that things are going sideways, you'd think that some projects would emerge at some stage. Otherwise how the hell are companies making money? there's only so many people you can sack to fake profits.

[willendure]

Lol, you need lay off the 'economic collapse imminent videos' on youtube.

I don't watch those, or buy into that narrative. I am saying there is going to be a deflationary event, not economic collapse. If there was a control board for the world economy, it would be flashing up all red warning signs at the moment - sure it might not happen, but the warning lights ARE all on. I actually hope you are right and we get blue skies and I am proved wrong. There is probably a melt-up in financial markets coming that I will miss out on as a result of my cautionary stance, but I am ok with that.

[avonleigh]

Lol, you need lay off the 'economic collapse imminent videos' on youtube.

The market is improving markedly already, the jobserve headline number jumped from 15K to 36K, after just one minor rate cut by the BOE last month.

Is the market really improving? I am not seeing any evidence of it. There are a lot of permanent roles in Europe that are popping up, a lot seem to be duplicates. So maybe this is distorting the figures.

[Fraidycat]

Lol. Next DotCom/GFC is just about to get started...

Lol, you need lay off the 'economic collapse imminent videos' on youtube.

The market is improving markedly already, the jobserve headline number jumped from 15K to 36K, after just one minor rate cut by the BOE last month.

[willendure]

We are nearly at the end of this i think. The dot com crash took down the UK contractor market for about 30months. (Mid 2001 to end of 2003)
We are 26 months into this one, and interest rates cuts are on the way down and in 4 months the next US president will take office. Coinciding with the 30 month mark.
Blue skies ahead.
I would at least continue applying for roles where you are a perfect match based on the spec and your skills.

Lol. Next DotCom/GFC is just about to get started...

[sreed]

I think contractors current challenges are only a symptom of a wider problem. I know it is unscientific but looking on LinkedIn I am not sure the permanent market is much better and IT recruitment is a blood bath at the moment.

Exactly this. The fortunes of the 'contractor market' (however one might define the wide spectrum of ways in which companies hire temporary talent) will largely follow the general job market within a sector/industry.

And as others have mentioned, no one gives a tulipe about the specific travails of the contractor job market, not the general public and not the government (any government). In the grand scheme of things, we're a small part of the job market, that's it.

As far as the pure IT sector is concerned, an interest-rate cut or an uptick in the UK economy will not necessarily translate into good times for jobs/contracts in the sector. There's a massive amount of excess supply built up over the past few years, they're not going anywhere yet.