Originally posted by Old Greg
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Raab gone
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Lots of "no deal" bravado in the Brexit community. It reminds me of the aftermath of June 2016.
June 2016 seems such a longtime ago.
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostParliament will stop No Deal.
Parliament will do whatever its members decide is in their best interest. Even Grieve admitted he's out of ideas. The only way they'll stop No Deal is to rescind Article 50 (they won't) or pass a vote of no confidence. The latter might happen but I don't consider it likely.
If there is a vote of no confidence there will be a General Election and Boris will run on a No Deal platform and agree an Electoral Pact with Farage. And they will win because the Lib Dums, the Greens, and Labour will divide the Remain vote in enough constituencies that they'll win a majority. And we'll then have a WTO Brexit under a BoJo/Nigel coalition of chaos that won't be able to govern anything even with their big majority. And there will probably be another election not long after Brexit happens.
That's what I think will happen if a no-confidence vote passes. And I suspect people like Kenneth Clarke know it is the most likely outcome, and so will be slow to vote no-confidence -- so I'm just not so sure there will be such a no-confidence vote.
I certainly would expect MPs to pass something requiring BoJo to ask for an extension. And he'll send Raab off to Brussels to ask for it and the answer will be no, and so we'll have No Deal. But I don't think that passel of self-serving cowards in Westminster has the courage to do anything that would really block No Deal if a PM is determined to Brexit and the EU is determined not to move. They'll make all the noises about blocking it but they won't risk their lovely seats in Westminster for it. I could be wrong. But I do have some money down to mitigate my losses if we get No Deal because I still expect that to happen.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by WordIsBond View PostI'm not sure I suggested the EU should do anything else. I just said what I think will happen, which is not what I wish would happen.
I suspect there will eventually be a parliament, this one or another one, that will be able to agree to coherent proposals, and that the EU will come to the point of agreeing some reasonable approach even if it doesn't exactly match their current approach. I suspect that we'll have to put up with a period of 'no deal' first to concentrate minds on both sides of the channel, but that it probably will happen within two years.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostSo what else is the EU to do in the face of a failing state?
I suspect there will eventually be a parliament, this one or another one, that will be able to agree to coherent proposals, and that the EU will come to the point of agreeing some reasonable approach even if it doesn't exactly match their current approach. I suspect that we'll have to put up with a period of 'no deal' first to concentrate minds on both sides of the channel, but that it probably will happen within two years.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by WordIsBond View PostFor a few more weeks, yes.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by Old Greg View PostIt is also the UK government position.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by WordIsBond View PostMate, I hate to break it to you but if the fact that Theresa May agreed to the WA had any legal force we'd be out of the EU by now. The fact that she agreed to it is entirely irrelevant now. It is a relic of history. It's only continuing existence is that it is the current EU negotiating position.Leave a comment:
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Originally posted by meridian View Post“They” don’t have to choose anything at all. A WA has been agreed with the official U.K. government representatives. If Parliament didn’t want the U.K. government to agree the WA then it should have set boundaries when A59 was triggered. It didn’t.
And if a government never puts it through parliament it seems likely that sometime in the next 9,428 years there will be a different negotiating position and a different agreement between the parties in regard to trade and other matters. I'm of the view it's likely to happen within the next 18 months and probably less, but whatever. If you choose to think the EU negotiating position is written in stone and immutable, I think you'll probably eventually learn differently.
Originally posted by meridian View PostIt is a reasonable deal.
Originally posted by meridian View PostOh, FFS. Cretinism all over again.Leave a comment:
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Raab gone
Originally posted by WordIsBond View PostIf the EU can't get no Brexit, and I doubt they can get it, they have to choose between a new WA or no deal, whatever they might be saying now.
Give them a reasonable deal and they will eventually accept it.
Money always talks, and if German exporters are hurt badly by no deal, the EU position will end up magically moving before long. That's just the way it is in the real world.
Boris needs a Brexit that is clear enough to win back most Tory Brexiteers, not all of them. No Irish backstop, no customs union, free trade agreements with the US and various other countries.
He needs the Euro ports to not blow up with massive backlogs, no nightmares at airports,
Queues at airports? Only for non-EU citizens. Eg Brits. Not anyone in the EU’s problem, but makes for good headlines in the Sun.
.If he can also get some decent agreements with the EU on fishing
Then, he'll do something absolutely stupid and blow up his popularity for something absolutely pointless. That's Boris.Leave a comment:
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