Originally posted by vetran
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Hard Brexit - Vauxhall to leave UK
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I'm alright Jack -
Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostWhilst the wheels haven't yet become detached from the Brexit bandwagon, they are beginning to wobble.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...om-uk-to-spain
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/20...rant-closures/“Brexit is having a wee in the middle of the room at a house party because nobody is talking to you, and then complaining about the smell.”Comment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostThe retail sales figures includes on-line sales.
The pound weakened as a result, I wasn't in EURGBP on my demo account but I saw it swing when the figures came out.
I rarely (never?) see you posting about good economic numbers, of which there are many recent examples, particularly w/r to industrial and manufacturing production.
The move in Sterling was relatively small, and it was only marginally down on the day. Against the USD, which is admittedly weak, it's approaching 1.4, which is a post-referendum high, and not far from the pre-referendum level.
A credible view is a balanced view.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostSure, but this was widely interpreted as being exaggerated by rapidly changing shopping behaviour. The November figures were strong.
I rarely (never?) see you posting about good economic numbers, of which there are many recent examples, particularly w/r to industrial and manufacturing production.
The move in Sterling was relatively small, and it was only marginally down on the day. Against the USD, which is admittedly weak, it's approaching 1.4, which is a post-referendum high, and not far from the pre-referendum level.
A credible view is a balanced view.I'm alright JackComment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostThe UK is a service economy, PMI figures showed a slowdown in December. At the moment the rest of the world is booming, and Americans scoff at 2.5% growth whereas 1.5% growth in the UK is seen as a major success Normally with such a booming economy growth should be approaching 3%.
Despite Brexit. Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Etc.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostEh? UK growth is closer to 2%, and the Markit services PMI was 54.2 in December, up on November, squarely in expansionary territory and better than expected. All PMIs are strong, with only construction showing mixed performance.
Despite Brexit. Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Etc.
Anecdotal evidence is not good, at Christmas everyone was tightening their belts after no salary increases and surging inflation.Last edited by BlasterBates; 20 January 2018, 15:54.I'm alright JackComment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostGrowth last year was 1.7% and slowed down in the latter half. The UK is currently growing around 1.5% and Germany 2.8%, Germany's GDP in the latter half of 2017 was twice that of the UK. If the UK is growing at half the rate as other comparable countries you can guess what will happen in the next global downturn, which I suspect will happen in the next couple of years.
Anecdotal evidence is not good, at Christmas everyone was tightening their belts after no salary increases and surging inflation.
Anecdotal evidence for your desired recession is not good.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostAgain, you're being massively selective with whom you choose to believe, taking the extreme estimates both ways, which is indicative of a certain emotional attachment to failure. Growth in Germany in 2017 was around 2.2%. The NIESR Q4 estimate of growth in the UK is 0.6%. The NIESR estimate for UK growth in 2017 is 1.8%. In other words, roughly 2%, given the revisions/uncertainty. Preliminary (ONS) estimates of UK GDP have a long history of being biased low, as do those by the BoE.
Anecdotal evidence for your desired recession is not good.
The figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%
Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018
Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual
Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%Last edited by BlasterBates; 20 January 2018, 23:04.I'm alright JackComment
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Originally posted by BlasterBates View PostThe figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%
Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018
Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual
Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%
UK growth at 1.8% in 2017:
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/gdp-gr...t-2017q4-13185
German growth at 1.8% in 2017:
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/DEU
Being selective is easy, especially if you’re a remainer, it seemsComment
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