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Brexit - The Vision

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    Brexit - The Vision

    Most people I work with openly talk about BREXIT. It seems 99% of them didn't vote for it. This is a major investment bank with, assuming meritocracy is operating as expected, very high earners and a multitude of intelligent individuals.

    But: individuals sheltered from the true reasons for brexit. It seems the people who voted remain seem to agree many areas of the UK, in each country, were disadvantaged and left behind somewhat by globalisation. They still have smartphones, new job opportunities and styles of working - so they were not quite as left behind as is made out. If I go and live in rural Scotland, it's a lifestyle choice. For someone growing up in Fort William, they can't truly expect all the social and job opportunities available in cities to head towards them.

    Any lack of investment in a village or town that seems blamed on the EU is, in actuality, the fault of our own UK government policy over the decades. This is exactly the part I do not understand the rationale for. It is assumed immigration is seen as an issue, it is assumed people wanted to (quote) "give the establishment a kicking". An advisory referendum results in THIS?

    What is the vision that the leavers see? We don't need another leaver-bashing thread. I want to help myself and other remainers understand what the 2025 vision is. I am no EU-phile, but the easy access to trade deals that have improved living standards for 99% of the UK over the past 20, 30, 40 years is obvious to see the benefit of. I pay a high membership fee to my squash club, precisely because the benefits I get I deem worth more than the fee.

    The only groups I can see benefiting from the Leave EU mantra are corporations and large conglomerates, who will have an easier time dictating policy and expanding any monopoly they are edging towards. Having spoken to James Dyson not so long ago, I can see exactly what his gameplan is. It isn't to benefit the poor of the UK, that's for sure. "Business is business."

    Owlhoot, Bean, Original PM, et al; can you provide some bulletpoints of what is the vision? Specifics. Trade deals with which specific countries, for example. If you are pro-corporation and wish them to guide policy it is absolutely ok to be specify that as an aim. I've worked in many countries and certainly see a more content nation that does not embrace that ethos, but each to their own opinion. The main criticism of the leavers is a lack of cohesive vision and cohesive plan. Remain was, by definition, pushing for gradual influence and change using the soft touch strategy; so it's safe to say most Remainers understood what vision they were pursuing.

    I've mentioned before that most medium size business owners I know are wondering how to serve the UK market but move their core HQ to other EU countries. Business is business. Many families are worried about stagnation, their children losing out on the career ladder and job opportunities of the future based elsewhere. I do not believe there is such a gulf that leavers possess some magic superpower that has this concrete plan that the remainers simply cannot see.

    When 99.9% of researchers, scientists and intelligent individuals say climate change exists, I see that for what it is: the fact, until volume of evidence shows otherwise. There are so many of these neutral individuals against leaving the EU, from economists to businesses to university professors, it does make one question the validity of the exercise.

    Thanks for any input.

    For me, the main issues that I cannot see a resolution to, without accepting negative growth (contraction) and long term recession and simple acceptance of a less developed progression in society are:
    • No decent trade deals with non-EU countries; they are unlikely to be prioritised by those countries
    • Non-EU immigration will increase, as these are always negotiated upwards in trade deals - we need them more than they need us for the foreseeable
    • Universities are finding competition conditions internationally very difficult right now. Lesser growth is likely to lead to mediocrity within our infamous universities
    • Leave = far right growing due to resentment from, for example, the young voters who - sizeable majority - voted to remain; but resentment may be fed by a populist candidate (again)
    • 'Hard BREXIT' seeming likely, almost purposefully it seems, meaning a soured relationship with our geographically best trading partner
    • Stagnation in almost all business sectors, due to impact of devalued currency long-term, high personal debt ratio, extended P/E ratio of UK companies, etc
    • Sour grapes from many highly skilled professionals who are able to be mobile and head abroad (perhaps temporarily) until the landscape is clearer 5/10 years down the line
    Last edited by contractorinatractor; 24 November 2017, 13:01.

    #2
    You may be poor but at least you will be free of the EUSSR and immigration.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by contractorinatractor View Post
      Most people I work with openly talk about BREXIT. It seems 99% of them didn't vote for it. This is a major investment bank with, assuming meritocracy is operating as expected, very high earners and a multitude of intelligent individuals.

      SNIP for brevity[/LIST]
      We just do not need or want their politicians - if we could go back to the 'common market' then no one would have wanted to leave the EU - but it has become more than it ever was supposed to be.

      I understand how people say 'it is better to stay in because you can get stuff cheaper' but how much can you be bought for?

      Will you keep turning a blind eye to immigrants living in squalid conditions so you can get your latte 30 p cheaper?

      Where does it end?

      Also remember
      1) Europeans can still move to the Uk and work here - just not in an unfettered manner.
      2) We do consider ourselves to be European
      3) We do not dislike European people and we will continue to go there.


      So when you break it down it is really just the parliament bit of the EU we wanted rid of.....

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by original PM View Post
        We just do not need or want their politicians - if we could go back to the 'common market' then no one would have wanted to leave the EU - but it has become more than it ever was supposed to be.

        I understand how people say 'it is better to stay in because you can get stuff cheaper' but how much can you be bought for?

        Will you keep turning a blind eye to immigrants living in squalid conditions so you can get your latte 30 p cheaper?

        Where does it end?

        Also remember
        1) Europeans can still move to the Uk and work here - just not in an unfettered manner.
        2) We do consider ourselves to be European
        3) We do not dislike European people and we will continue to go there.


        So when you break it down it is really just the parliament bit of the EU we wanted rid of.....

        Weren't squalid conditions always the case for the poor? The so-called squalid conditions now is an order of magnitude above the squalid conditions of the 60's and 70's in some brutalist cities. You will be replacing the foreign poor (again, not poor in comparison to decades ago here) with british born poor. Also: as mentioned, trade deals always reliant upon immigration negotiation mean I don't really think immigration is going to decrease. If anything, it's going to have to increase as we (try to) do all these trade deals.

        I am idealist in principle but a realist in reality. Modern poverty is knowledge and information poverty. One has to look to North London, Liverpool and Govan near Glasgow to see true poverty of the 1950's and 60's. New poverty is so much improved. I don't think I see BREXIT reducing poverty or reducing squalid conditions. I see it increasing the number of British born individuals in those squalid conditions. I can't see a mechanism for eliminating it.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by contractorinatractor View Post
          Most people I work with openly talk about BREXIT. It seems 99% of them didn't vote for it. This is a major investment bank with, assuming meritocracy is operating as expected, very high earners and a multitude of intelligent individuals.

          But: individuals sheltered from the true reasons for brexit. It seems the people who voted remain seem to agree many areas of the UK, in each country, were disadvantaged and left behind somewhat by globalisation. They still have smartphones, new job opportunities and styles of working - so they were not quite as left behind as is made out. If I go and live in rural Scotland, it's a lifestyle choice. For someone growing up in Fort William, they can't truly expect all the social and job opportunities available in cities to head towards them.

          SNIPPED for ease of reading
          Thanks for taking the time to write a well-thought out, non-inflammatory, non-flaming post/thread, but since it's under Brexit, 'leavers' will get bashed by the usual suspects - just give it time...


          When the government du jour, campaigns for the losing side in a referendum - the winning side have no actual powers to make anything happen, so 'our' (Owl/OPM/Me/etc) vision is almost completely irrelevant (and unless there's a coincidence, unlikely to occur).


          Like people who thought/think, that Nigel Farage had/has any ability whatsoever to enforce the 'option' he suggested on the side of a bus regarding the NHS.....
          (Or like suggesting all the labour leave campaigners could/can do anything, whilst a tory government holds the regins....)


          TM has said 'will of the people' etc etc and tried to execute it, despite her being a fence-sitter who was leaning on the remain side.

          • Personally I'm pro-capitalism, but not pro-corporatism.
          • Trade deals with BRIC, commonwealth countries & Africa - are what I'd hope we'd be seeking out, if we are unable to reach a deal with the EU.
          • Investment on skills (re)-training would be high on my list, to future-proof some jobs likely to be replaced by robot automation etc.
          • I have no issue with skills-based immigration from any country, provided we can set the limits.
          • Living standards have been at a plateau for the last decade, according to a recent report haven't they? (so can't be solely blamed on brexit).
          • Simplification of the tax code.
          • More weight thrown behind combatting large corps tax avoidance.
          • Building of lots of social homes and reduction of DSS using private landlords, thus reducing welfare bill in long-term.
          • A grown up 'chat' with the nation about elderly care & pensions in general
          • Investing in new tech and enabling infrastructure rollouts to help the whole population, e.g. 5G


          There's lots of other stuff too, that the government can at least try to do to avoid business stagnation, as you put it (and I believe the R&D tax offset announced in the budget is one aspect of that).

          This is just me though, there is no general consensus of either leave or remain - just individual opinions, that may have others that agree and others that disagree;
          e.g. aren't some of labour MPs split about staying in the single market
          e.g. aren't some of tory MPs split about hard brexit


          Let's see what DD & MB come up with before and after the December summit
          Originally posted by Old Greg
          I admit I'm just a lazy, lying cretinous hypocrite and must be going deaf
          ♕Keep calm & carry on♕

          Comment


            #6
            Brexit - The Vision

            Apart from trade deals with BRIC, etc, which of those in your list cannot be achieved with the U.K still in the EU?

            In other words, your argument appears to be for leaving the certainty of one of the worlds largest single markets, for the hope of future deals with a multitude of much, much smaller markets?

            (Not having a go, I'm genuinely confused)

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by meridian View Post
              Apart from trade deals with BRIC, etc, which of those in your list cannot be achieved with the U.K still in the EU?

              In other words, your argument appears to be for leaving the certainty of one of the worlds largest single markets, for the hope of future deals with a multitude of much, much smaller markets?

              (Not having a go, I'm genuinely confused)
              contractorinatractor was originally asking about a vision for the future, which is not necessarily the same as the reasons to vote to leave.

              Many people wanted out for relatively non-tangible reasons (which have traditionally been dismissed as unimportant by remainers with a sole focus on money), such as;

              Supremacy of UK courts,
              Supremacy of UK law, (whilst still being in a common market, not a supra-national political union),
              100% control (not reduction or stopping) of all immigration,
              etc.

              You've seen lists of things from others in the past I'm sure - but the 3 examples above cannot be done inside the EU, as it currently stands.
              Originally posted by Old Greg
              I admit I'm just a lazy, lying cretinous hypocrite and must be going deaf
              ♕Keep calm & carry on♕

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Bean View Post
                contractorinatractor was originally asking about a vision for the future, which is not necessarily the same as the reasons to vote to leave.

                Many people wanted out for relatively non-tangible reasons (which have traditionally been dismissed as unimportant by remainers with a sole focus on money), such as;

                Supremacy of UK courts,
                Supremacy of UK law, (whilst still being in a common market, not a supra-national political union),
                100% control (not reduction or stopping) of all immigration,
                etc.

                You've seen lists of things from others in the past I'm sure - but the 3 examples above cannot be done inside the EU, as it currently stands.
                I understand the OP, it just sounded like your vision for the future was the same as one we could have outside Brexit, except less trade.

                I'm sure you already know, but no national court or law has 100% supremacy. Except perhaps North Korea, where they give two fingers to any other international courts. So I guess the real question is where you're prepared to draw the line, and that's okay; I think it's clear that the line is "outside the EU, but will accept all other normal international obligations".

                Both Brexit responses have missed your vision on trade, though. Do you have a vision on where you would see the future with the EU, and how much (if any) you're prepared for the country to pay for it?

                Oh, and Northern Ireland.

                Comment


                  #9
                  We voted to leave because we didn't want to be absorbed as a chattel of the EU Country. Trade is fine but a federal EU doesn't suit the British. Yes the divorce will be messy but in the long run we'll be glad we left and preserved 1,000 years of independence. Stuff gravitates toward the centre and Berlin is the centre of the EU and not London. Us on the periphery would be asset stripped over time and now we wont because we're keeping sovereignty over our dominion.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I voted "leave" because I thought that the EU leadership (ie. the comission and president) should be elected directly by the people. Every other state in the free world elects its leaders in this way, and the EU, a putative state, should do the same. In essence, the led must always be able to dismiss their leaders.

                    Looked at another way, if you pass laws by which citizens must live, those same citizens must be able to vote you out of power at the next election. All democratic nations operate in just this way.

                    I look forward to the EU becoming fully democratic. When it does, many of its issues and problems will disappear overnight. The "vision", then is this: EU 2.0, a fully democratic, enlightened super-state, which I will be happy for Britain to join.

                    Comment

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