Brexit rebellion building in Parliament

[Old Greg]

ps. I agree.

Article 50 is going to be invoked once the Tories have a PM. Then there will be an election (I hope), assuming the new PM thinks they can win it convincingly. Any party that aims to reverse the decision will need to stand on an explicit manifesto to do this. They will be absolutely killed. Not even a little bit.

FPTP is a funny thing. If only one party seeks explicitly to stay in the EU the Brexit vote gets split.

[BlasterBates]

Lets face it, it's pretty clear the EU will be squeezing the UK's balls hard and there is a significant parliamentary majority for a solution similar to Norway with the free movement of peopleworkers.

It'll make government easy, just wait for the faxes of the new rules from Brussels and implement them. Boris would then have more time for his charity cricket matches.

[stek]

I don't know where you read this, but it's completely baseless.

The process (of notifying the EU) is controlled by Gov't, not parliament. What you're suggesting is that a scenario could arise whereby a new Tory PM chooses not to formally notify the European Council of our intention to leave.

I can't believe I'm even bothering to write this. You can choose not to take me at my word, but I would've said the same, had we lost.

Anyone seriously considering the circumstances in which we ignore the vote, however clever that mechanism might appear to be, doesn't realise what they're playing with. Funny stuff.

Bring on Stage 3!

Law forum, believe it or not, I have a law degree....

People that know more than me, but yeah, it's all theorising, guess they're getting off on the legal niceties....

Basically about Art.48 which is how Greenland left the EU, which is basically an amendment of EU membership, it would need to be ratified by all the 28 countries of the EU and the European Parliament. But that would be the case for a Brexit deal under Article 50 anyway, so both have the same level of difficulty.

There is precedent though, though Art 48 isn't 'leaving' in my short span of trying to read the thing without falling asleep.

[jamesbrown]

Pig tulip thick, racist 51.9% British, innit?

[jamesbrown]

But it is all rather silly. There needs to be an election for a new parliament through which can be formed a government that has a mandate to negotiate with the EU.

ps. I agree.

Article 50 is going to be invoked once the Tories have a PM. Then there will be an election (I hope), assuming the new PM thinks they can win it convincingly. Any party that aims to reverse the decision will need to stand on an explicit manifesto to do this. They will be absolutely killed. Not even a little bit.

[FatLazyContractor]

Anyone seriously considering the circumstances in which we ignore the vote, however clever that mechanism might appear to be, doesn't realise what they're playing with.

Pig tulip thick, racist 51.9% British, innit?

[jamesbrown]

There is no parliamentary approval of the process required now. Of course Parliament could pass an act requiring such approval.

But it is all rather silly. There needs to be an election for a new parliament through which can be formed a government that has a mandate to negotiate with the EU.

Who proposes legislation?

A Private Members Bill?

[jamesbrown]

I'm reading that there is a possibly of a referendum of whether we should invoke Art. 50. There are alternatives too, i.e. Art. 48 for example.

I don't know where you read this, but it's completely baseless.

The process (of notifying the EU) is controlled by Gov't, not parliament. What you're suggesting is that a scenario could arise whereby a new Tory PM chooses not to formally notify the European Council of our intention to leave.

I can't believe I'm even bothering to write this. You can choose not to take me at my word, but I would've said the same, had we lost.

Anyone seriously considering the circumstances in which we ignore the vote, however clever that mechanism might appear to be, doesn't realise what they're playing with. Funny stuff.

Bring on Stage 3!

[Old Greg]

It's hard to lose.

But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).

There is no parliamentary approval of the process required now. Of course Parliament could pass an act requiring such approval.

But it is all rather silly. There needs to be an election for a new parliament through which can be formed a government that has a mandate to negotiate with the EU.

[stek]

It's hard to lose.

But, it's worth taking a step back and thinking about how this is going to work at the most elementary level. There will be a new Tory PM. They will invoke Article 50. There is no parliamentary approval of that process, it is for the Gov't to invoke in a speech or letter. Once invoked, the two-year process begins. Any agreement with the EU will need to be approved by parliament, but the Gov't is the executive and decides what to propose, not parliament. If a proposal is not approved within two years, we've left, regardless. So, barring a massive climbdown from the EU in which they offer something like EEA without freedom of movement (not going to happen), there is no scenario in which Article 50 is not invoked and, once invoked, no scenario in which we will remain. After we've left, try arguing for renewed membership on the basis of the Euro and Schengen Area Pretty soon, this is all going to sink in. The next ~2 years is about deciding the nature of our relationship outside the EU, not whether we're going. Let's be honest, they don't really want us at this point, anyway. We've fecked them around for far too long (seriously, I'd be peed off with us too).

I'm reading that there is a possibly of a referendum of whether we should invoke Art. 50. There are alternatives too, i.e. Art. 48 for example.