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28th November 2008, 11:10
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#1
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Fingers like lightning
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 643
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Traders betting on a 36% fall in house prices
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ther-36pc.html
House prices are set to fall a further 36pc over the next two years in what could amount to the worst post-war housing crash, according to the price of contracts being traded on the derivatives market.
Of course my house is going up in value. Always has and always will.
__________________
If A is success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut.
Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955),
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28th November 2008, 11:13
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#2
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Godlike
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: In a fish'n'chip shop
Posts: 5,587
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Gosh those traders are optimistic, I'm guessing over 80%.
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28th November 2008, 11:16
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#3
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Fingers like lightning
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 738
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That would be my guess too, based on bringing house prices back down to a sustainable level, which IMHO is 5% deposit plus 3.5 times the average wage of 31K.
Except _V_'s house of course, which will spiral exponentially out of control.
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28th November 2008, 11:17
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#4
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Super poster
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Castle Saburac
Posts: 3,837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doggy Styles
That would be my guess too, based on bringing house prices back down to a sustainable level, which IMHO is 5% deposit plus 3.5 times the average wage of 31K.
Except _V_'s house of course, which will spiral exponentially out of control.
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you are confused
__________________
I have decided on my career path. I will become a nun. Sister, please come clean if you wish to avoid a fisting - Jeremy Bender
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28th November 2008, 11:23
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#5
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Super poster
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,411
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doggy Styles
That would be my guess too, based on bringing house prices back down to a sustainable level...
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I agree. I've got a really nice house which you shouldn't be able to afford unless you earn at least £115,000. Therefore, it won't go down in value.
That's my theory and I'm sticking to it!!
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It's not what you're worth, it's what you can get that counts 
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28th November 2008, 11:25
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#6
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Banned
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 1,923
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Quote:
Originally Posted by _V_
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ther-36pc.html
House prices are set to fall a further 36pc over the next two years in what could amount to the worst post-war housing crash, according to the price of contracts being traded on the derivatives market.
Of course my house is going up in value. Always has and always will.
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Mine, too. A couple more months and I will be richer even the The Millionaire DimPrawn. |
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28th November 2008, 11:35
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#7
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Super poster
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doggy Styles
That would be my guess too, based on bringing house prices back down to a sustainable level, which IMHO is 5% deposit plus 3.5 times the average wage of 31K.
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Except you assume everyone buys a house on their own..... |
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28th November 2008, 11:48
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#8
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Fingers like lightning
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tay
Except you assume everyone buys a house on their own.....
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Not really. During stable times UK lenders were limiting borrowers to 3 times one salary plus 0.5 times the other (hence my 3.5). Each time they've drifted above that we've ended up with house price boom and bust.
We never learn (because we always think "it is different this time"), so boom/bust cycles will happen ad infinitum, but the above figures have historically been sustainable levels. |
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28th November 2008, 11:51
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#9
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Super poster
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Castle Saburac
Posts: 3,837
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doggy Styles
Not really. During stable times UK lenders were limiting borrowers to 3 times one salary plus 0.5 times the other (hence my 3.5). Each time they've drifted above that we've ended up with house price boom and bust.
We never learn (because we always think "it is different this time"), so boom/bust cycles will happen ad infinitum, but the above figures have historically been sustainable levels.
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are you getting mixed up between how much a house costs, and how much a borrower should borrow. ?
__________________
I have decided on my career path. I will become a nun. Sister, please come clean if you wish to avoid a fisting - Jeremy Bender
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28th November 2008, 12:22
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#10
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Fingers like lightning
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EternalOptimist
are you getting mixed up between how much a house costs, and how much a borrower should borrow. ?
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No, you might not have seen my original post in which I also included deposits.
If those with larger deposits from equity in previous houses borrow to the maximum, they can obviously buy above-average houses. But there won't be so much of that in two years time, because their equity will deflate. |
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