Originally posted by northernladyuk
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Tory Brexit No Deal DOOM™: Labour
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Hard Brexit now!
#prayfornodeal -
Originally posted by northernladyuk View PostWhen you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?
And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.Comment
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Originally posted by original PM View PostThere are two outcomes.
And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.
Here's a fact:
Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.
So actually we have a continuum:
Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.
If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.
But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.Last edited by sasguru; 23 October 2017, 11:57.Hard Brexit now!
#prayfornodealComment
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Originally posted by sasguru View Post
its a free trade zone between 27 member nations, the market outside those is subject to taxes and tariffs, so not a completely free marketComment
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Originally posted by sasguru View PostYou really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.
Here's a fact:
Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.
So actually we have a continuum:
Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.
If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.
But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.
The 60 billion bill is not negotiable and neither is freedom of movement. Having swallowed those two poisoned pills the "reward" will be huge queues of lorries at the border, like you see in Switzerland and banks moving half of their operations to the EU,
That will be the best you can get. Congratulations !
The only hope then is that the UK will be able to cut a fantastic deal with the US and live happily ever after eating chlorinated chickens.Last edited by BlasterBates; 23 October 2017, 12:05.I'm alright JackComment
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Originally posted by sasguru View PostYou really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.
Here's a fact:
Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.
So actually we have a continuum:
Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.
If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.
But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.
However the 'deal' is about more than finances from many brexiters point of view.
And that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.Comment
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Originally posted by original PM View PostThere are two outcomes.
And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.
You presumably also think that Outcome A 'no deal', Outcome B 'deal with UK in customs union' and Outcome C 'deal with UK not in customs union' all have a one in three probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.Comment
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Well, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.…Maybe we ain’t that young anymoreComment
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Originally posted by WTFH View PostWell, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.Comment
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Originally posted by original PM View PostAnd that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.
HTH
A RemoanerComment
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