UK 'not legally obliged' to pay Brexit exit bill, say peers

[motoukenin]

Recently the Germans have said that they will back Junker on the exit bill that needs to be paid, UK Gov thought that the bill negotiations were going to be done in parallel, this is not the case, the exit fee will need to be guaranteed by UK Gov before trade negotiations take place.

As for free trade agreements,we are coming out of the EU and customs union therefore there will be tariffs and more local trade barriers to goods going to and from the UK. More likely there wont be a trade agreement done by the time we exit , especially as we will probably burn up another 3 - 6 months arguing about the exit fee before the EU start the trade negotiations.

Even some of the most stanch Conservative Brexit backers are saying that we will end up with WTO rules by 2019 but this may not be a big disaster as people think, due to several factors but more notably our currency is and still will be 20% lower and will be for some time, so any tariff charges will be offset against the weak sterling, we will still be better off for some exports (but not complex products like cars which require large imports from the EU) as the currency gets stronger, like it did when we left the ERM , this will then be an issue but hopefully by then a trade agreement will be in place.

Together with the baby boom pension costs and increased inflation which are not included in our debt figures, leaving the EU will in the short term could lead to a massive debt issue by 2020 putting us on a par with Italy in terms of debt to GDP.

Brexit is a massive risk to the UK economy and Philip Hammond in the budget this week will be telling us about a war chest that personally I don't think exists considering we are still borrowing money each month to make ends meet.

[GB9]

Recently the Germans have said that they will back Junker on the exit bill that needs to be paid, UK Gov thought that the bill negotiations were going to be done in parallel, this is not the case, the exit fee will need to be guaranteed by UK Gov before trade negotiations take place.

As for free trade agreements,we are coming out of the EU and customs union therefore there will be tariffs and more local trade barriers to goods going to and from the UK. More likely there wont be a trade agreement done by the time we exit , especially as we will probably burn up another 3 - 6 months arguing about the exit fee before the EU start the trade negotiations.

Even some of the most stanch Conservative Brexit backers are saying that we will end up with WTO rules by 2019 but this may not be a big disaster as people think, due to several factors but more notably our currency is and still will be 20% lower and will be for some time, so any tariff charges will be offset against the weak sterling, we will still be better off for some exports (but not complex products like cars which require large imports from the EU) as the currency gets stronger, like it did when we left the ERM , this will then be an issue but hopefully by then a trade agreement will be in place.

Together with the baby boom pension costs and increased inflation which are not included in our debt figures, leaving the EU will in the short term could lead to a massive debt issue by 2020 putting us on a par with Italy in terms of debt to GDP.

Brexit is a massive risk to the UK economy and Philip Hammond in the budget this week will be telling us about a war chest that personally I don't think exists considering we are still borrowing money each month to make ends meet.

Legally it is belong increasingly evident that no exit fee is due. The EU might dream there is one but they are arguing from a weak position.

Of course they can threaten not to do a deal with us unless we pay a fee but that's up to them.

We know free trade is in their interests even more than ours, however I'm sure you have read the reports this weekend that the Commission would rather damage the EU economically than be seen to be giving in to the UK. So on that basis, WTO here we come.

Currencies fluctuate over time so saying it is down now has no relevance to where it could be. And as you will be aware, most countries want to devalue their currency anyway.

You are correct in that we still spend more money than we have. More budget cuts to come, or a tax increase.

[tomtomagain]

It's going to be an interesting couple of years. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.

I do wonder whether the EU will be able to hold a common front during the negotiations.

Although as a %age the EU is more important to the UK as an export market, the UK is more important to individual countries.

For example the Hungarians and Poles don't export much to us whereas the Germans do. However the are are an awful lot more Poles living the UK than Germans.

I saw some stat that said 60% of RoI exports went to the UK. So I assume that they will be very interested in maintaining free trade.

Also on Radio 4 this morning it said that 98% of imported dairy products came from the EU ... and ( get this for madness ) at the same time UK farmers are forced into exporting at a loss. Under WTO rules there's a 30% tarrif on dairy. So come WTO-day the British farmers will suddenly find their home market has increased in size, whereas the European farmers will find theirs has decreased.

Not sure who's farmers are currently supplying us our milk .... but if it's the French then there will be tractors blocking the Champs-Élysées before you can say "sacré bleu"

[northernladyuk]

It's going to be an interesting couple of years. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.

I do wonder whether the EU will be able to hold a common front during the negotiations.

Although as a %age the EU is more important to the UK as an export market, the UK is more important to individual countries.

For example the Hungarians and Poles don't export much to us whereas the Germans do. However the are are an awful lot more Poles living the UK than Germans.

I saw some stat that said 60% of RoI exports went to the UK. So I assume that they will be very interested in maintaining free trade.

Also on Radio 4 this morning it said that 98% of imported dairy products came from the EU ... and ( get this for madness ) at the same time UK farmers are forced into exporting at a loss. Under WTO rules there's a 30% tarrif on dairy. So come WTO-day the British farmers will suddenly find their home market has increased in size, whereas the European farmers will find theirs has decreased.

Not sure who's farmers are currently supplying us our milk .... but if it's the French then there will be tractors blocking the Champs-Élysées before you can say "sacré bleu"

BRITAIN IS USUALLY seen as Ireland’s main EU ally and largest trading partner, but Belgium is a bigger export market, according to CSO statistics obtained by TheJournal.ie.

The statistics show that while Ireland exported €13.7 billion worth of goods to Britain in 2015, exports to Belgium topped €14.5 billion.

A proportion of this is shipped on from Belgian ports to other markets.

Exports to Britain still account for much more bulk – 36% of the total volume of exports were across the Irish Sea.

The United States, meanwhile, remain our most lucrative export market by a country mile, accounting for €26 billion of Irish exports last year.

Britain is not Ireland's most lucrative EU trading partner - Belgium is

[VectraMan]

Also on Radio 4 this morning it said that 98% of imported dairy products came from the EU ... and ( get this for madness ) at the same time UK farmers are forced into exporting at a loss. Under WTO rules there's a 30% tarrif on dairy. So come WTO-day the British farmers will suddenly find their home market has increased in size, whereas the European farmers will find theirs has decreased.

Assuming the British consumers are happy to pay the now higher prices for dairy products in the same numbers.

People keep talking about having "a trade agreement", but it seems to me more likely we'll have many hundred trade agreements, some of which may be ready in time for Brexit and some of which will need to be hammered out over decades to come. The Single Market covers more or less everything, but if there's any merit in Brexit it's us being able to negotiate on a case by case basis. The common sense thing (apart from simply forgetting Brexit) would be to keep the rules around food supply exactly the same as they are now, at least for an interim period, because it's simply too important to risk. And that'll be the first major outbreak of moaning.

[AtW]

our currency is and still will be 20% lower and will be for some time, so any tariff charges will be offset against the weak sterling

A lot of exports depend on imported stuff, so weak sterling will play against it plus there will be tariffs on those imports too. This Brexit thing is going to be a future textbook example of how to **** up real quick.

Also, people assume that other countries will just be fine with UK exploiting it's weak currency to flood the market with cheap exports, that won't happen - even China is just getting away with it, the WTO thing can unravel soon, the world trade is getting more protectionist, so being outside of a big trading block is crazy.

[AtW]

Brexit is a massive risk to the UK economy and Philip Hammond in the budget this week will be telling us about a war chest that personally I don't think exists considering we are still borrowing money each month to make ends meet.

He will use Brexit as excuse to increase taxes further - all this talk of alternative "low tax economy" is Tory Scum lies.

[shaunbhoy]

A lot of exports depend on imported stuff,

And if these imports become too expensive then all the more reason to start producing them here again.

It is only the ridiculously punitive exploitation of cheap labour elsewhere that has made it commercially non-viable to produce locally.

Level that playing field and away we go!! BOOMED I tell ya!!

[AtW]

Legally it is belong increasingly evident that no exit fee is due. The EU might dream there is one but they are arguing from a weak position.

It won't be Lords who'll decide it, EU court will. Even if UK exits without fees then they would be added as extra tariff to compensate EU - it's a lose/lose game for UK.

[AtW]

And if these imports become too expensive then all the more reason to start producing them here again.

So tell me please exactly how you'll copying multiple parts from Japan/Germany used in cars made in UK, where you going to get R&D to get skills/tech needed to produce them?

It will be much easier and profitable for owners to move final assembly to EU instead.