[Merged]Brexit good news

[sirja]

First point. When last month's retail figures were down it was gloom due to Brexit. Are you saying those figures weren't due to Brexit? Are you off message?

Second point. Why would we trigger A50 and our 2 year period before we are ready? If we pee off the EU then so be it but we work to our timetable, not theirs. Or would you rather we started now and spent the first 6 months of our 24 getting the team together, presumably so you could shout about minimal progress?

I know much better than to ascribe one, two or even three months worth of data to anything. The simple truth is there will be good economic data and there will be bad economic data. Both sides of the Brexit divide will try to use every piece of data to the advantage and both are most likely wrong.
As I've mentioned in the past, there is a very high probability of a significant market correction into early October. if it happens many on the remain side will say it's supports their arguments, and even though I am strongly remain, I promise you I'll be on these boards to caution against any gloating(Just as I am doing now).

It is only after Article 50 has been invoked and investors have some clarity (or not) of what the UK's trading arrangements with the single market will be, that we will be able to start seeing what their reactions are. If the govt do indeed invoke Article 50 early next year, then I think mid year will be the time to really start seeing how things are panning out.

Of course there are now noises that due to the French and German elections, it may not be invoked till the end of next year.

[BrilloPad]

UK public finances see smaller surplus - BBC News

[DimPrawn]

UK public finances see smaller surplus - BBC News

BBC says smaller surplus is due to Brexit, and the rise in retail spending is due to good weather.

[CretinWatcher]

BBC says smaller surplus is due to Brexit, and the rise in retail spending is due to good weather.

The BBC doesn't say anything.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European Economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The UK's vote to leave the European Union clearly put the fiscal targets for 2016-17 and beyond out of reach.

"Even before the Brexit vote, the plan to get [public sector net borrowing] down to £55.5bn in 2016-17 from £74.9bn in 2015-16 had looked challenging, while ex-Chancellor George Osborne's target of a budget surplus in 2019-20 was widely seen as hugely optimistic."

Mr Archer added: "The public finances look poised to take a serious hit from probable significantly weakened economic activity after the Brexit vote, taking a toll on tax receipts in particular. It also seems probable that unemployment will rise, while any slowdown in the housing market will hit Stamp Duty receipts."

I would say this is all good news though, we need to roll back public spending and let people stand on their own 2 feet.

[BrilloPad]

I would say this is all good news though, we need to roll back public spending and let people stand on their own 2 feet.

f**k me. 2 sensible comments in a day. Are you feeling okay?

[The_Equalizer]

f**k me. 2 sensible comments in a day. Are you feeling okay?

Law of averages I believe.

[darmstadt]

Retail sales rose in July despite Brexit slump fears, report finds - BBC News


Boomed!!!

Excellent news. Presumably everyone bought on credit as well? Actually this report is tosh, it is not quantitative and when you read that 35% of retailers said that volumes were up in “August” and 26% said that volumes were down (ie a percentage balance of 9%), please remember that only 58 retailers took part…and that the survey was conducted between July 27th and August 12. Pretty good eh? Now what about the important areas where Britain makes it's money: services, construction and manufacturing which were all down. Is the UK going to try and buy it's way out of a recession but then how are people going to pay off of all their debts when their business is not making any money? Difficult one to balance there...

[jamesbrown]

Excellent news. Presumably everyone bought on credit as well? Actually this report is tosh, it is not quantitative and when you read that 35% of retailers said that volumes were up in “August” and 26% said that volumes were down (ie a percentage balance of 9%), please remember that only 58 retailers took part…and that the survey was conducted between July 27th and August 12. Pretty good eh? Now what about the important areas where Britain makes it's money: services, construction and manufacturing which were all down. Is the UK going to try and buy it's way out of a recession but then how are people going to pay off of all their debts when their business is not making any money? Difficult one to balance there...

The BRC survey is a joke, but the recent YouGov survey paints a similar picture.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/26...-jitters-ease/

It's not that surprising. The majority of voters are happy with the outcome, and many more are ambivalent. There's also a devaluation bonus for tourists and some people will bring forward large purchases in anticipation of higher prices later on. Either way, shocks to confidence are shallow and temporary. Long term, confidence largely depends on jobs and housing. As much as it pains the Bremoaners, it's going to be a long time before there's anything worth talking about.

[DodgyAgent]

Excellent news. Presumably everyone bought on credit as well? Actually this report is tosh, it is not quantitative and when you read that 35% of retailers said that volumes were up in “August” and 26% said that volumes were down (ie a percentage balance of 9%), please remember that only 58 retailers took part…and that the survey was conducted between July 27th and August 12. Pretty good eh? Now what about the important areas where Britain makes it's money: services, construction and manufacturing which were all down. Is the UK going to try and buy it's way out of a recession but then how are people going to pay off of all their debts when their business is not making any money? Difficult one to balance there...

The Brit hating is in full cry I see.

[darmstadt]

The Brit hating is in full cry I see.

So pointing out facts is Brit hating is it? Presumably in order to be a true patriotic Brit you need to lie through your back teeth, no wonder you like the Tories