BREXIT - WTO now saying UK will need new trade deal costing billions and years

[DodgyAgent]

We'd remain a member for at least two years, depending on when Article 50 is triggered. There's a reasonable argument to join EFTA for some period after that, as a period of transition. Long-term, we won't be part of the single market, but the negotiated arrangements (budget contributions, tariffs etc.) are unknown. The Eurozone is weak, and it will remain weak, because it is economically illiterate, to borrow a phrase, so we're in a position of strength, once the pettier bureaucrats have been kicked out of office (Junker et al.). The Bremainers are so woefully pessimistic about our prospects, economic and otherwise. It's a surprise they can be fecked to get up in the morning.

Remainers are either establishment people on the Brussels gravy train or big business where red tape keeps new competition out or permies afraid of any sort of change. Or contractors who enjoy the freedom to work anywhere in the EU

[jamesbrown]

As is putting a stop to free movement of labour across the EU. The point is rules will have to be rewritten and quickly too. An emaciated EU would be desperate (if it survived at all) to concoct a trade deal with the UK. If they decided to hang around and punish the UK the remaining countries would quickly follow the UK.

I hope the EU is re-imagined, without the democratic deficit, but I have literally no confidence in their ability for critical self-reflection. Merkel acts unilaterally. Junker et al. aim to suppress dissent at any cost. I don't think we can make any assumptions about their rationality, even faced with their impending demise. I think that was the clear message form Hamface's "renegotiation", as well as assorted other crises currently facing the EU. They may choose to sink themselves. I hope they don't but, either way, our democracy is too important.

[OwlHoot]

Anyone who followed GATT negotiations and subsequently WTO will know it takes years to get a trade agreement, whichever country you're dealing with.

Seems like the EU takes forever to agree a trade deal, and most of them end up falling through for one reason or another.

So outside the EU we'd be able to clinch trade deals far faster (although whether they'd be favourable is another matter).

Have a careful read of this excellent and well-considered article which somone here posted a link to earlier:

2016-05-22 What is it reasonable to believe might be the economic impact of Brexit?

[jamesbrown]

Seems like the EU takes forever to agree a trade deal, and most of them end up falling through for one reason or another.

So outside the EU we'd be able to clinch trade deals far faster (although whether they'd be favourable is another matter).

Have a careful read of this excellent and well-considered article which somone here posted a link to earlier:

2016-05-22 What is it reasonable to believe might be the economic impact of Brexit?

It really is an excellent article. It requires some patience (not an easy read at all), but it's worth a look.

[OwlHoot]

]
Remainers are either establishment people on the Brussels gravy train or big business where red tape keeps new competition out or permies afraid of any sort of change. Or contractors who enjoy the freedom to work anywhere in the EU

or, based on polls, sad to say, a majority of women. I imagine those remainers mostly come into the category "afraid of any sort of change".

There's also the deluded "sasguru" category of those who fancy themselves as sophisticated globe trotters breezing about in European countries, "in Stuttgard one day and Zurich the next" as sas actually put it the other day, and who affect to be internationalist citizens of the World or some such rubbish.

[DimPrawn]

or, based on polls, sad to say, a majority of women. I imagine those remainers mostly come into the category "afraid of any sort of change".

There's also the deluded "sasguru" category of those who fancy themselves as sophisticated globe trotters breezing about in European countries, "in Stuttgard one day and Zurich the next" as sas actually put it the other day, and who affect to be internationalist citizens of the World or some such rubbish.

In reality he's a stay at home house-husband, living in Croydon (leafy Surrey) and worrying about whether his power missus will come home.

[BlasterBates]

We'd remain a member for at least two years, depending on when Article 50 is triggered. There's a reasonable argument to join EFTA for some period after that, as a period of transition. Long-term, we won't be part of the single market, but the negotiated arrangements (budget contributions, tariffs etc.) are unknown. The Eurozone is weak, and it will remain weak, because it is economically illiterate, to borrow a phrase, so we're in a position of strength, once the pettier bureaucrats have been kicked out of office (Junker et al.). The Bremainers are so woefully pessimistic about our prospects, economic and otherwise. It's a surprise they can be fecked to get up in the morning.

When the UK left the Common Wealth it joined the EU, but if it is leaving the EU it's not already arranged a deal anywhere else. Not only is it leaving the EU it's leaving all the other 161 countries it got deals with through the EU.....and there are no trade negotiators any more in the UK, they're all in Brussels. i.e. the UK will simply cut all trade agreements with everyone and has no experienced negotiators.

A country wishing to do that commands my utmost respect

[tomtomagain]

After a Brexit the Germans will simply expand their British plants. However that won't compensate for the loss of jobs in the Japanese car plants that will relocate.

The UK will be a massive loser after a Brexit.

Why would the Japanese car plants relocate and cede market-share to their German rivals? Doesn't make sense.

Especially given the huge cost of relocating a car plant and that they would be in a strong position to increase their sales in the UK.

More likely they'd pause investment in further capacity for a couple of years whilst it all settled down.

[AtW]

WTO rules on new membership require approval of ALL WTO members, a single member state can block Britain from joining, Russia for example.

[BlasterBates]

Why would the Japanese car plants relocate and cede market-share to their German rivals? Doesn't make sense.

Especially given the huge cost of relocating a car plant and that they would be in a strong position to increase their sales in the UK.

More likely they'd pause investment in further capacity for a couple of years whilst it all settled down.

The UK manufactures more cars than any other European country thanks to the fact that Japanese car manufactures use the UK as their manufacturing base.

Britain now producing MORE cars than Germany: How the UK has become the car production capital of Europe | Daily Mail Online

After a Brexit if the UK is not part of the single market then there will be quotas and tariffs, so therefore the Japanese would probably shift some manufacturing to the EU and conversely the Germans would shift some manufacturing to the UK.

i.e. it's not there would be no trade but you get this shifting around.

Integrated operations such as the ones the Supermarkets use throughout Europe would also break down. This is what would cause the economic downturn and prices to rise.

This is where all these predictions come from the IMF, WTO etc

If the UK signs a deal similar to Norway then things will stay as they are, but then Brexit would be largely symbolic rather than meaningful.