Oil - How low can it go?

[clearedforlanding]

Surely if they were hurting price-wise they'd close the taps a bit to try to increase it? Of course with the Iran embargo ending that might not matter, but I can't imagine the Saudis aren't contributing a significant amount of the world's oil still.

They control the worlds surplus production. This is what puts them in a position to manipulate prices.

[seanraaron]

Hence why the status quo must suit them for some reason. Analysis I've read suggested it was short term pain in exhange for trying to put competitors out of business. It's all fun and games until the wells run dry anyway. Do the gulf states have a plan b for that?

[DimPrawn]

Hence why the status quo must suit them for some reason. Analysis I've read suggested it was short term pain in exhange for trying to put competitors out of business. It's all fun and games until the wells run dry anyway. Do the gulf states have a plan b for that?

They have 15 trillion pounds of London real estate on the books. Or a dozen ex-public toilets as we call them.

[clearedforlanding]

Hence why the status quo must suit them for some reason. Analysis I've read suggested it was short term pain in exhange for trying to put competitors out of business. It's all fun and games until the wells run dry anyway. Do the gulf states have a plan b for that?

Dubai - Tourism, Qatar - BUY EVERYTHING IN LONDON AND US TECH NOW!, the rest - mostly not.

The Saudi's have absolutely no plan B. It shall be interesting when the citizens who are not part of the House of Saud kick off.

[seanraaron]

They have 15 trillion pounds of London real estate on the books. Or a dozen ex-public toilets as we call them.

Ahahahaha! Yeah I think eventually London will be a ghost town of executive high rises bought as tax dodges by foreigners. Maybe the government can make money off tours?

[Tensai]

The US frackers have changed the game by becoming the swing producer instead of the Saudis, i.e. they can turn production on and off pretty quickly. And that stops the price rising to the $100+ levels again.

The interesting point is that many of them are so heavily leveraged/endebted, that the banks may well think twice about funding them as and when the price does increase - once bitten, twice shy. And they *will* be bitten - good WSJ article on the subject here.

In the meantime, contractors working in the industry (like me) are absolutely screwed. Whenever I think it can get no worse, it does. I will be out sometime in the next couple of months, and no-one is hiring right now. McDonalds, here I come.....

[tomtomagain]

They control the worlds surplus production. This is what puts them in a position to manipulate prices.

They ( The Saudis) *used* to control the worlds surplus production. But the US shale revolution has completely removed that power from them.

Don't forget that only a few short years ago America was the worlds biggest importer of crude oil. With shale that has been completely transformed in a way that nobody predicted and the US is on course to become a big exporter of crude to the rest of the world.

Yesterday the first cargo of US crude docked in Europe.

[clearedforlanding]

They ( The Saudis) *used* to control the worlds surplus production. But the US shale revolution has completely removed that power from them.

Don't forget that only a few short years ago America was the worlds biggest importer of crude oil. With shale that has been completely transformed in a way that nobody predicted and the US is on course to become a big exporter of crude to the rest of the world.

Yesterday the first cargo of US crude docked in Europe.

I stand completely corrected. Thanks for that.

[jamesbrown]

The US frackers have changed the game by becoming the swing producer instead of the Saudis, i.e. they can turn production on and off pretty quickly. And that stops the price rising to the $100+ levels again.

Exactly. They can respond quickly if prices improve. Some will (have) go under, but existing supplies in some basins/regions are surprisingly resilient, including at substantially lower prices than the current levels, whereas many countries in the ME depend on oil to finance gov't spending. Some regional US banks may pull the plug. New supplies will be difficult to finance. However, rates are low and there's little incentive for a bank to pull the plug on a profitable supply.

[tomtomagain]

Another consideration is the electrification of the car fleet.

In 10 years time what %age of cars will be hybrids? Pretty high I'd guess. So we might not have reached "Peak Oil" ( remember that doom-and-gloom prediction ..... the world is going to run out. $200 a barrel. Going to hell-in-a-handcart etc etc )

But we might have reached "Peak Demand" ( at least in the West ).

By 2026 won't the majority of new cars by hybrids?