• Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
  • Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!

Oil - How low can it go?

Collapse
X
  •  
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    #11
    As low as a snake's belly button.
    Work in the public sector? Read the IR35 FAQ here

    Comment


      #12
      Originally posted by seanraaron View Post
      It'll keep dropping until the Saudis feel they've killed off competition from shale oil, I expect. So the real question is: how low is too low to bother with shale?
      But what if USA considers Shale oil industry an important one for their oil independence and props it up

      Comment


        #13
        Originally posted by jbond007 View Post
        But what if USA considers Shale oil industry an important one for their oil independence and props it up
        Well they've been talking about lifting the export ban on domestic crude recently so I'd be surprised. I suspect it will come down to the size of Saudi contributions in the upcoming Presidential campaign.

        Comment


          #14
          Originally posted by jbond007 View Post
          But what if USA considers Shale oil industry an important one for their oil independence and props it up
          The Saudi's can pump oil for around $5 a barrel. And not only that, they will have to as 90% of their economy depends on it.

          The US won't protect it's Shale industry. It won't need to. Sure it will be a bloodbath for most of the Shale producers but this will just let companies like Exxon pick up more proven reserves so that they are ready come the upturn.

          The thing about the Americans is a) They are really inventive. There will be smart, motivated minds working on how to get the costs down.
          b) The have a flexible market. That is they'll shut down when times are bad but as soon as it's profitable again, they'll spring back into life.
          c) They are not squeamish about exploiting their own natural resources.
          d) They love oil.


          The current market conditions are a classic case of oversupply. Oil was $100+ for a long time ( when I was first working in BigOil $50+ was considered fantastic). $75+ oil brought on a huge number of projects from West Africa to the coast of Brazil, from Gulf of Mexico, Canadian Tar sands, US Shale to the North Sea.

          And don't forget the extra barrels that Iran is going to bring to the table.

          I would not be surprised if oil trades around $5 - $15 for the foreseeable future. By that I mean at least the next couple of years.

          Comment


            #15
            Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
            The Saudi's can pump oil for around $5 a barrel. And not only that, they will have to as 90% of their economy depends on it.

            The US won't protect it's Shale industry. It won't need to. Sure it will be a bloodbath for most of the Shale producers but this will just let companies like Exxon pick up more proven reserves so that they are ready come the upturn.

            The thing about the Americans is a) They are really inventive. There will be smart, motivated minds working on how to get the costs down.
            b) The have a flexible market. That is they'll shut down when times are bad but as soon as it's profitable again, they'll spring back into life.
            c) They are not squeamish about exploiting their own natural resources.
            d) They love oil.


            The current market conditions are a classic case of oversupply. Oil was $100+ for a long time ( when I was first working in BigOil $50+ was considered fantastic). $75+ oil brought on a huge number of projects from West Africa to the coast of Brazil, from Gulf of Mexico, Canadian Tar sands, US Shale to the North Sea.

            And don't forget the extra barrels that Iran is going to bring to the table.

            I would not be surprised if oil trades around $5 - $15 for the foreseeable future. By that I mean at least the next couple of years.
            I remember reading somewhere that Saudi's economy is based on them selling oil for atleast $50-$60. Sure, they can sustain short term cheap oil, but for how long coupled with the war in Yemen. It will increase their deficit and will create social unrest in a country used to luxuries and high pay for showing up to work and all the other subsidies the government provides

            Comment


              #16
              Originally posted by jbond007 View Post
              I remember reading somewhere that Saudi's economy is based on them selling oil for atleast $50-$60. Sure, they can sustain short term cheap oil, but for how long coupled with the war in Yemen. It will increase their deficit and will create social unrest in a country used to luxuries and high pay for showing up to work and all the other subsidies the government provides
              Actually the sand people have a horrendous budget deficit and are considering an IPO of Aramco. If this happens it will create the worlds largest company with a market cap circa $1T. Using the past as a yardstick they will piss this up against the wall on hookers, Italian cars, watches and SW1W. (Shhh, don't mention the booze)

              Comment


                #17
                Originally posted by Troll View Post
                With Diesel and Petrol now below £1 @ litre it's a certainty that the Fuel duty will be raised in the next budget
                Climate Change is killing every living thing on the planet. We should all be paying £50 a litre duty, what price the planet Earth!

                Comment


                  #18
                  Originally posted by seanraaron View Post
                  It'll keep dropping until the Saudis feel they've killed off competition from shale oil, I expect. So the real question is: how low is too low to bother with shale?
                  They don't have that power on the market - this is global oversupply.
                  http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

                  Comment


                    #19
                    Oil - How low can it go?

                    Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
                    Climate Change is killing every living thing on the planet. We should all be paying £50 a litre duty, what price the planet Earth!

                    Whatever...

                    http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

                    Comment


                      #20
                      Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View Post
                      They don't have that power on the market - this is global oversupply.
                      Surely if they were hurting price-wise they'd close the taps a bit to try to increase it? Of course with the Iran embargo ending that might not matter, but I can't imagine the Saudis aren't contributing a significant amount of the world's oil still.

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X