Originally posted by DaveB
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Oil - How low can it go?
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Originally posted by seanraaron View PostIt'll keep dropping until the Saudis feel they've killed off competition from shale oil, I expect. So the real question is: how low is too low to bother with shale?Comment
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Originally posted by jbond007 View PostBut what if USA considers Shale oil industry an important one for their oil independence and props it upComment
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Originally posted by jbond007 View PostBut what if USA considers Shale oil industry an important one for their oil independence and props it up
The US won't protect it's Shale industry. It won't need to. Sure it will be a bloodbath for most of the Shale producers but this will just let companies like Exxon pick up more proven reserves so that they are ready come the upturn.
The thing about the Americans is a) They are really inventive. There will be smart, motivated minds working on how to get the costs down.
b) The have a flexible market. That is they'll shut down when times are bad but as soon as it's profitable again, they'll spring back into life.
c) They are not squeamish about exploiting their own natural resources.
d) They love oil.
The current market conditions are a classic case of oversupply. Oil was $100+ for a long time ( when I was first working in BigOil $50+ was considered fantastic). $75+ oil brought on a huge number of projects from West Africa to the coast of Brazil, from Gulf of Mexico, Canadian Tar sands, US Shale to the North Sea.
And don't forget the extra barrels that Iran is going to bring to the table.
I would not be surprised if oil trades around $5 - $15 for the foreseeable future. By that I mean at least the next couple of years.Comment
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Originally posted by tomtomagain View PostThe Saudi's can pump oil for around $5 a barrel. And not only that, they will have to as 90% of their economy depends on it.
The US won't protect it's Shale industry. It won't need to. Sure it will be a bloodbath for most of the Shale producers but this will just let companies like Exxon pick up more proven reserves so that they are ready come the upturn.
The thing about the Americans is a) They are really inventive. There will be smart, motivated minds working on how to get the costs down.
b) The have a flexible market. That is they'll shut down when times are bad but as soon as it's profitable again, they'll spring back into life.
c) They are not squeamish about exploiting their own natural resources.
d) They love oil.
The current market conditions are a classic case of oversupply. Oil was $100+ for a long time ( when I was first working in BigOil $50+ was considered fantastic). $75+ oil brought on a huge number of projects from West Africa to the coast of Brazil, from Gulf of Mexico, Canadian Tar sands, US Shale to the North Sea.
And don't forget the extra barrels that Iran is going to bring to the table.
I would not be surprised if oil trades around $5 - $15 for the foreseeable future. By that I mean at least the next couple of years.Comment
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Originally posted by jbond007 View PostI remember reading somewhere that Saudi's economy is based on them selling oil for atleast $50-$60. Sure, they can sustain short term cheap oil, but for how long coupled with the war in Yemen. It will increase their deficit and will create social unrest in a country used to luxuries and high pay for showing up to work and all the other subsidies the government providesComment
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Originally posted by Troll View PostWith Diesel and Petrol now below £1 @ litre it's a certainty that the Fuel duty will be raised in the next budget
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Originally posted by seanraaron View PostIt'll keep dropping until the Saudis feel they've killed off competition from shale oil, I expect. So the real question is: how low is too low to bother with shale?Comment
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Oil - How low can it go?
Originally posted by DimPrawn View PostClimate Change is killing every living thing on the planet. We should all be paying £50 a litre duty, what price the planet Earth!
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Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View PostThey don't have that power on the market - this is global oversupply.Comment
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