Brexit could cost UK Treasury tens of billions in lost tax revenue, says Office for Budget Responsibility
The Treasury's official watchdog has highlighted the significant risk posed by Brexit to the UK's public finances in a new report.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, in its Fiscal Risk Report published on Thursday, said that a possible Brexit “divorce bill", which some have suggested could be up to €100bn (£88bn), would only be a “one-off hit” to the Exchequer and that the far bigger risk related to the damage that leaving the EU could do to the UK’s long-term growth rate.
It said that if Brexit ended up reducing the UK’s annual trend productivity growth rate – the amount the UK produces per hour of labour – by just 0.1 per cent over 50 years, the economy would be 4.8 per cent smaller than otherwise.
That would be equivalent to a cost in lost GDP of almost £100bn in today's money – which would translate into a £36bn hit to tax revenues.
Theresa May’s Government has not commissioned an official report on the long-term economic impact of Brexit, but before last June's referendum the Treasury produced an analysis which argued that leaving the EU would impact negatively on the UK’s productivity growth by reducing EU trade and curbing foreign investment in the UK. Both are seen as having an outsized impact on productivity.
Brexit could cost UK Treasury tens of billions in lost tax revenue, says Office for Budget Responsibility | The Independent
Nice, very nice - doing Brexit without getting report on long-term economic impact, I guess they already know what it will be.
The Treasury's official watchdog has highlighted the significant risk posed by Brexit to the UK's public finances in a new report.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, in its Fiscal Risk Report published on Thursday, said that a possible Brexit “divorce bill", which some have suggested could be up to €100bn (£88bn), would only be a “one-off hit” to the Exchequer and that the far bigger risk related to the damage that leaving the EU could do to the UK’s long-term growth rate.
It said that if Brexit ended up reducing the UK’s annual trend productivity growth rate – the amount the UK produces per hour of labour – by just 0.1 per cent over 50 years, the economy would be 4.8 per cent smaller than otherwise.
That would be equivalent to a cost in lost GDP of almost £100bn in today's money – which would translate into a £36bn hit to tax revenues.
Theresa May’s Government has not commissioned an official report on the long-term economic impact of Brexit, but before last June's referendum the Treasury produced an analysis which argued that leaving the EU would impact negatively on the UK’s productivity growth by reducing EU trade and curbing foreign investment in the UK. Both are seen as having an outsized impact on productivity.
Brexit could cost UK Treasury tens of billions in lost tax revenue, says Office for Budget Responsibility | The Independent
Nice, very nice - doing Brexit without getting report on long-term economic impact, I guess they already know what it will be.
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