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  1. #701

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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonMac View Post
    How are they compared to three months ago?

    In this world there are two types of investors, those looking for a quick return (I am talking under two years) or those in for the long haul, I am no where near good enough to be in it short term (care to share any of your losses with us rather than just your wins?). I read an interesting article that due to HFT the average length a stock is held these days is in the seconds, leveraging large amounts for minute gains, the big boys are much better at it than most, so I will keep to the slow and steady route.
    HUR? They're about 50% of that level. Hence the bargain basement given all that has happened since. I'm not spelling this out. If you want to make some cash you need to at least DYOR.

    Regarding losses? Sure, plenty (remember Marconi? Bloomberg "this is company that is not going to fail" a few days before it did!) but that was a long time ago and now I am VERY picky what I buy. 90% plus of my portfolio is in very steady unit trusts/OEICs but again, very carefully selected. Presently, I'm about 35 to 40% in cash. Just to add, I am little bit down on HUR presently, got in a day or two too early, but I bought more anyway. Given the impending upside, it's small beer.
    Last edited by Fred Bloggs; 7th August 2017 at 07:57.
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  2. #702

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred Bloggs View Post
    HUR? They're about 50% of that level. Hence the bargain basement given all that has happened since. I'm not spelling this out. If you want to make some cash you need to at least DYOR.

    Regarding losses? Sure, plenty (remember Marconi? Bloomberg "this is company that is not going to fail" a few days before it did!) but that was a long time ago and now I am VERY picky what I buy. 90% plus of my portfolio is in very steady unit trusts/OEICs but again, very carefully selected. Presently, I'm about 35 to 40% in cash. Just to add, I am little bit down on HUR presently, got in a day or two too early, but I bought more anyway. Given the impending upside, it's small beer.
    I must be reading this wrong, but how can 90% of your portfolio be in "very steady unit trusts/OEICs" and 35-40% in cash? Or do you mean 90% of the remaining 60-65%.

    So what is your long term strategy, how long have you got till you retire/start drawing down?
    “Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, then they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones.”

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  3. #703

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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonMac View Post
    I must be reading this wrong, but how can 90% of your portfolio be in "very steady unit trusts/OEICs" and 35-40% in cash? Or do you mean 90% of the remaining 60-65%.

    So what is your long term strategy, how long have you got till you retire/start drawing down?
    Yes, that's correct.

    I can retire anytime I want to but presently, working is so profitable and so much like a paid vacation I simply don't want to quit.

    I don't need my savings to live on. I have deferred final salary pension plus state pension that will be enough. My long term strategy is to continue to do what I do until I don't want to any more. In the meantime I will help the kids as much as I can. They won't be as lucky as I have been.
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  4. #704

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    Well, after announcing a USD 2 billion contract win a week ago, one week later, PFC shares took a drubbing on Friday. What changed? PFC still have the USD 2 billion contract? Yes they do. Is this still the same business that a short while ago was worth approx 2x as much and a little longer ago 3x as much? Yes it is. Will the SFO investigation damage the core business? Unlikely. I'm sitting on my hands but another move downward will see me topping up on PFC. Should be a nice divi on it's way very soon too, icing on the cake. DYOR, naturally.
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  5. #705

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred Bloggs View Post
    Well, after announcing a USD 2 billion contract win a week ago, one week later, PFC shares took a drubbing on Friday. What changed? PFC still have the USD 2 billion contract? Yes they do. Is this still the same business that a short while ago was worth approx 2x as much and a little longer ago 3x as much? Yes it is. Will the SFO investigation damage the core business? Unlikely. I'm sitting on my hands but another move downward will see me topping up on PFC. Should be a nice divi on it's way very soon too, icing on the cake. DYOR, naturally.
    So why assume the drop was out of the ordinary, and not the more logical answer that the bump after announcing the contract was inflated?

    I would imagine you could make a lot of money on this share (and I hope you do), looking at the dividend history it's pretty consistent, so depending on where you bought the stock it could be a nice return without the share price having to change.

    However another 10% loss (which given the last few months of volatility isn't out of the question) that would wipe almost all the potential dividend out, and there is no certainty that past dividends will continue looking at the dividend cover, a falling share price and a 11% dividend is unsustainable.
    “Live a good life. If there are gods and they are just, then they will not care how devout you have been, but will welcome you based on the virtues you have lived by. If there are gods, but unjust, then you should not want to worship them. If there are no gods, then you will be gone, but will have lived a noble life that will live on in the memories of your loved ones.”

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  6. #706

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    Quote Originally Posted by SimonMac View Post
    So why assume the drop was out of the ordinary, and not the more logical answer that the bump after announcing the contract was inflated?

    I would imagine you could make a lot of money on this share (and I hope you do), looking at the dividend history it's pretty consistent, so depending on where you bought the stock it could be a nice return without the share price having to change.

    However another 10% loss (which given the last few months of volatility isn't out of the question) that would wipe almost all the potential dividend out, and there is no certainty that past dividends will continue looking at the dividend cover, a falling share price and a 11% dividend is unsustainable.
    Thanks, interesting thoughts. Given recent history, I think the 10% drop was a shake of the tree to stop out some holders. It's going to be very volatile but on a 3 to 5 year view there is a LOT of potential in PFC. The recent big win reinforces the fact that despite to SFO actions, in their core market they remain a very respected name. It's BAU at PFC. I haven't topped up having bought in well sub 400p but I might do so if the opportunity arises.
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