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Share Investment, Discussion & Tips

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    Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
    If you were to close Glencore tomorrow and sell it's assets, you could pay off it's debts and distribute the rest to the shareholders, and they would have a 300% profit.

    That is how ridiculous the Glencore valuation is.

    ...and their assets aren't difficult to evaluate, because they consist of millions and millions of tons of Copper and Zinc.
    Shareholders don't get anything. Bond holders have the first right to assets.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Andy2 View Post
      Shareholders don't get anything. Bond holders have the first right to assets.
      Debt including bond holders is 100 billion
      Assets 148 billion

      If the assets are sold at 148 billion

      148 billion - 100 billion = 48 billion

      48 billion is the book value of the company.

      http://www.glencore.com/assets/inves...eport-2015.pdf

      They have huge inventories of copper, zinc and nickel all priced up in their half yearly report and mining assets to sell.

      Of course now the question is do you do that now or wait; that's the conundrum that Glencore faces, uncertainty but they do have a lot levers to pull to get cash when they need it.

      Sure if they restructure the business it ends up smaller and not as profitable in the long run, but that's not bankruptcy.
      Last edited by BlasterBates; 29 September 2015, 21:25.
      I'm alright Jack

      Comment


        More likely that the original investors will take the opportunity to take the company back into private hands.

        Then they can refinance without the hindrance of being a public company, rebrand and then re-float in a few years time when everyone has forgotten.

        Comment


          Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
          Debt including bond holders is 100 billion
          Assets 148 billion
          Debt is most certainly the same as quoted OR higher.

          Assets - most certainly LESS than quoted.

          There might be a cheap big wheel tractor sale soon. xoggoth might be interested for that funny farm of his...

          Comment


            Originally posted by AtW View Post
            Debt is most certainly the same as quoted OR higher.

            Assets - most certainly LESS than quoted.
            This - if you wanted to liquidate 148b worth of commodity assets such as copper, they wouldn't be worth 148b anymore. Everybody already has a computer, tablet and a smartphone and the best Glencore can hope for is someone upgrades to iPhone 6s and they sell 20 million x 1g of copper

            Comment


              I'll give a fiver for all free float of Glencore.

              Offer valid for the next 24 minutes.

              Comment


                Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
                More likely that the original investors will take the opportunity to take the company back into private hands.

                Then they can refinance without the hindrance of being a public company, rebrand and then re-float in a few years time when everyone has forgotten.
                Exactly, in fact their bank has said as much, it is pretty self evident that Citi Group is prepared to go ahead and sort out the financing for the MBO.

                This is what will probably happen if things go on like this. Could be heading for the division of the company into separate entities for trading and mining.
                I'm alright Jack

                Comment


                  Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
                  Debt including bond holders is 100 billion
                  Assets 148 billion

                  If the assets are sold at 148 billion

                  148 billion - 100 billion = 48 billion

                  48 billion is the book value of the company.

                  http://www.glencore.com/assets/inves...eport-2015.pdf

                  They have huge inventories of copper, zinc and nickel all priced up in their half yearly report and mining assets to sell.

                  Of course now the question is do you do that now or wait; that's the conundrum that Glencore faces, uncertainty but they do have a lot levers to pull to get cash when they need it.

                  Sure if they restructure the business it ends up smaller and not as profitable in the long run, but that's not bankruptcy.
                  But the assets are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them, and as the commodity price has dropped so too has their asset value, and in a firesale all bets are off as to what you might get ignoring what its worth
                  Last edited by SimonMac; 30 September 2015, 07:05.
                  Originally posted by Stevie Wonder Boy
                  I can't see any way to do it can you please advise?

                  I want my account deleted and all of my information removed, I want to invoke my right to be forgotten.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by SimonMac View Post
                    But the assets are only worth what someone is willing to pay for them, and as the commodity price has dropped so too has their asset value, and in a firesale all bets are off as to what you might get ignoring what its worth
                    But they're not facing imminent bankruptcy as everyone seems to perceive, they have plenty of time to sell stuff off.


                    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-shopping-list


                    There seems to be a perception that Glencore is about to declare bankruptcy. If that were the case Citi Group and Morgan stanley wouldn't have stumped up $1.6 billion for the share issue.


                    Petrobras was downgraded to junk status in 2010, 5 years ago, ....now Petrobras is in danger of bankruptcy in the next few months.
                    Last edited by BlasterBates; 30 September 2015, 07:50.
                    I'm alright Jack

                    Comment


                      I suppose the only redeeming fetaure of making a punt on a share like this, is downside is limited to zero, upside is unlimited. Who knows, share price from here could go up 10x current price in the next boom.

                      However, it might go nowhere for 5 years, which ties up that capital which could be better served elsewhere.

                      Comment

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